\u3000\u3 Bohai Water Industry Co.Ltd(000605) 499 Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co.Ltd(605499) )
Events
On the evening of February 27, 2022, the company released its annual report for 2021: the revenue in 2021 was 6.978 billion yuan, an increase of 40.72% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.193 billion yuan, an increase of 46.90% at the same time; Deduct RMB 1.084 billion, an increase of 34.71% at the same time.
Key investment points
The fourth quarter was in line with expectations, and the market share further increased
According to the annual report, the revenue of 2021q4 was 1.418 billion yuan, an increase of 55% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 197 million yuan, an increase of 82% at the same time; Deduction of non RMB 119 million, an increase of 13% at the same time. In 2021, the gross profit margin was 44.37% (- 2pct). If the impact of reclassifying transportation expenses to operating costs due to changes in accounting policies is excluded, the actual gross profit margin was 47.34% (+ 0.7pct), mainly due to the following reasons: 1) the proportion of 500ml gold bottle revenue continued to rise; 2) The purchase price of polyester chips, a bulk raw material, decreased due to price locking in advance, and the average price decreased by 12.03% year-on-year in 2020. The net interest rate in 2021 is 17.10% (+ 0.7pct), of which the net interest rate in 2021q4 is 13.9% (+ 2.1pct), which is required for brand publicity after listing. If excluding the promotion expenses of listing projects, the actual sales expense rate in 2021 is 18.19%, which is basically the same as that in the same period last year. At present, the company’s sales share in the energy beverage market has increased from 27.00% in the same period last year to 31.70%, becoming the highest energy beverage sales in China; The market share of sales increased from 20.20% in the same period last year to 23.40%, ranking second in the market.
500ml special drinks grew strongly, and the proportion outside the province exceeded that inside the province
In terms of products, the revenue of Dongpeng special drink in 2021 was 6.592 billion yuan (+ 42.34%), accounting for 94.66% (+ 0.83pct); Among them, the income of 500ml bottled special drinks was 5.024 billion, accounting for 76.22%, an increase of 62.84% at the same time; The revenue of 250ml bottled special drinks was 848 million, accounting for 12.87%, an increase of 3.31% at the same time; The revenue of 250 ml Tetra Pak special drink was 123 million, accounting for 1.87%, an increase of 46.34%. Other beverages amounted to 372 million yuan (+ 22.19%), accounting for 5.34% (- 0.83 PCT). In 2021, the sales volume of Dongpeng special drink was 1508300 tons (+ 43.75%), and the corresponding ton price was 4400 yuan / ton, which was basically the same.
By channel, the distribution revenue in 2021 was 6.172 billion yuan (+ 40.4%), accounting for 88.63%; The revenue of direct marketing (including national direct marketing, Guangdong Southern special channel and catering channel) is 656 million yuan (+ 43.29%), accounting for 9.42% (+ 0.14 PCT); Online 107 million yuan (+ 88.42%), accounting for 1.53% (+ 0.38pct); Others: 29 million yuan (+ 15%).
In terms of sub regions, Guangdong’s revenue in 2021 was 3.199 billion yuan (+ 30%), accounting for 46% (- 4pct); 772 million yuan (+ 79%) in East China, accounting for 11% (+ 2pct); Central China: 753 million yuan (+ 44%), accounting for 11%; The relationship is 706 million yuan (+ 40%), accounting for 10%; 432 million yuan (+ 65%) in Southwest China, accounting for 6%; RMB 339 million (+ 45%) in North China, accounting for 5%. At the end of 2021, there were 2312, with a net increase of 712. There are 2.09 million active terminal outlets nationwide.
Adhere to steady growth and five strategies in 2022
The company’s core business objective in 2022: it is expected that the company’s revenue will increase by no less than 15.00% in 2022.
The company adheres to five strategies: 1) industrial strategy: build the management organization of the group’s large supply chain, promote the production and marketing coordination mode of the supply chain, and realize the integrated management of production, marketing and inventory from the supply end to the business end; The company will add new product production lines in Zengcheng base, South China base, Anhui base and Chongqing base, continue to promote the construction of Changsha base and Quzhou base, and steadily promote the site selection, land acquisition and land bidding, auction and listing of Shenzhen base and Shanwei base, so as to provide a solid guarantee for the consolidation and development of regional markets in South China, central China, East China and southwest China, Reduce the cost of long-distance logistics transportation.
2) market strategy: accelerate the nationwide layout, subdivide the existing market while strengthening the development of terminal outlets, continue to strengthen the investment of intelligent freezers in Guangdong marketing headquarters, national marketing headquarters and direct marketing headquarters (including modern channels / special channels and traditional channels), continue to develop terminal outlets and strengthen product exposure.
3) customer strategy: on the basis of consolidating and maintaining the existing “drivers” such as self driving drivers and truck drivers, the “blue collar / new blue collar people” such as takeout riders and express brothers, and the “white-collar consumers” such as medical white-collar workers and it programmers, meet the “sports crowd”, “students crowd”, “entertainment crowd”, “official crowd” and “overtime crowd” Create accurate projects according to the scene requirements of “people in need of good state”.
4) product strategy: focus on the beverage track and lock in the consumption scene of “tired and sleepy”. In 2022, it is planned to launch a light energy drink “Dongpeng sports special drink” for sports scenes, a classic and original energy drink “Dongpeng bubble special drink”, “250ml new gold can” and “335ml slim can”, and build Dongpeng “energy +” product matrix with Dongpeng special drink as the core.
5) brand strategy: continuously carry out mass brand communication, deepen the functional value education of the company’s products, and make Dongpeng special drink the first choice in the “tired” state.
Profit forecast
We are optimistic about the company’s new product volume under the energy beverage track and the national expansion path. We expect that the company’s EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 3.84/4.71/5.67 yuan, and the current share price corresponding to PE will be 44 / 36 / 30 times respectively, maintaining the “recommended” investment rating.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risks, epidemic drag on consumption, online expansion is less than expected, new product volume is less than expected, peak season sales are less than expected, industry competition intensifies risks, and the construction progress of raised investment is less than expected.
