The blast furnace operating rate further decreased, and the Nanhua industrial products index fell. The output of heavy industry decreased, the light textile industry improved slightly, and the industrial added value increased by 3.4%.
The decline in steel prices and cement prices indicates weak demand, a year-on-year increase in the base, and the investment growth slowed to 5.4%.
The sales area of commercial housing and the number of completed units increased month on month, the car retail continued to grow negatively year-on-year, the food and car retail index rose, the price of terminal consumer goods rose recently, and the year-on-year growth rate of consumption rose to 5.1%.
Overseas demand is still relatively strong, international transport capacity is improved, and exports will maintain a high boom; Affected by the higher base and the weakening of commodity prices, the year-on-year growth rate of imports will slow down marginally. The trade surplus is expected to expand slightly in November.
Food Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices and pork prices will rise, non food prices may increase, tail warping factors will rise significantly, and CPI will return to the era of 2 after 14 months.
China’s bulk commodity price index fell, the prices of main means of production in the circulation field corrected as a whole, the tail warping factor decreased, and the year-on-year increase of PPI is expected to fall to 11.8%.
The activity of residents’ credit and equity financing has increased significantly. It is expected that the credit growth rate will drop slightly to 11.8%, and the social finance growth rate will rebound to about 10.2%.
In November, the new value-added of M2 will be significantly increased month on month, but the year-on-year growth rate may still fall due to the impact of the high base, which is expected to be about 8.5%; LPR and MLF interest rates will remain stable in December.
The US dollar maintains a strong trend, while the RMB exchange rate is strong. It is expected that the RMB will not depreciate. Under the valuation effect, the scale of foreign exchange reserves is expected to increase slightly by US $15 billion.
