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In November 2021, China’s exports denominated in US dollars fell to 22.0% year-on-year, imports rose to 31.7% year-on-year, and the trade surplus decreased to US $71.72 billion.
Ping An View:
Since late October, after the impact of a new round of epidemic abroad, China’s import and export boom has continued. From the two-year average data of exports and imports, both the year-on-year and cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the current month continue to rise.
By product, November (Two-year average) the contribution of major products to exports was flat or rebounded. Mechanical and electrical products remained the main force driving exports, and their contribution rate to export growth also increased. The outbreak of a new round of overseas epidemic once again increased the import demand for China’s epidemic prevention materials, and the average year-on-year pull of epidemic prevention materials on exports increased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.8%. In Southeast Asian countries The poor recovery of production capacity has helped to enhance the export of China’s labor-intensive products.
Don’t look at different countries, November (Two-year average) exports from ASEAN, EU to China and Hong Kong to the mainland increased the most. Exports from ASEAN to China increased by 0.7 percentage points to 2.6%, the most obvious increase. Exports from EU to China and Hong Kong to the mainland also increased significantly, and their exports to China reached the highest level since April this year. Exports from the United States to China increased significantly The actuator remains high.
The recent outbreak of a new round of overseas epidemic is still the primary reason for China’s export boom. Europe is particularly affected by this round of epidemic outbreak, and the emergence of Omicron variant has increased the uncertainty of epidemic transmission. In this case, many European countries have tightened epidemic prevention measures, which not only exacerbated the already tight supply chain problem, but also limited the recovery of their production capacity. Meanwhile, although international commodity prices fell in November, they were still at a high level year-on-year, continuing to support exports.
After the mutation and rapid spread of Omicron virus overseas, it will prolong the time when China’s export market share is at a high level, but it will also bring greater challenges to China’s epidemic prevention and control. The virus is more infectious, which means higher epidemic prevention costs. This is one of the important reasons why the central bank has comprehensively reduced the reserve requirement recently and emphasized “efforts to stabilize the macro-economic market” in the general draft of the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee.
In November, crude oil, integrated circuit, coal and lignite, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , automatic data processing equipment, etc. greatly boosted imports. In terms of price, the import prices of coal, lignite, crude oil, refined oil, natural gas and other energy commodities are still high year-on-year, and the rise of bulk commodity prices still plays a supporting role in import and export, but the import prices of most products have begun to fall year-on-year. In terms of volume, the year-on-year growth rate of the import volume of most products has increased, especially the import volume of coal and lignite has increased by 200.3% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate of automobile related products, pharmaceutical materials and drugs has also improved greatly.
