Comments on trade data in November 2021: the trade data in November exceeded expectations again, and the price rise is still an important reason to drive the growth of import and export

Event: according to the data of the General Administration of customs, in November 2021, China's export amount (in US dollars, the same below) increased by 22.0% year-on-year, the former value was 27.1%, and the same period last year was 20.5%; in November, the import amount increased by 31.7%, the former value was 20.6%, and the same period last year was 4.6%; in November, the trade surplus was US $71.77 billion, the former value was US $84.55 billion, and the same period last year was US $74.25 billion.

Main points:

In November, the growth rate of export volume remained significantly high, exceeding the general expectation of the market. The main reason is that the price of China's main export commodities has risen sharply year-on-year, rather than the number of non export commodities. This continues the structural characteristics of export data since the third quarter, which means that the current export has a limited pulling effect on China's industrial production and even the overall macroeconomic growth.

In November, the growth rate of import volume rebounded sharply than expected. Among them, the contribution of price factor to the growth of import volume is still high. Meanwhile, the year-on-year growth rate of imports of major commodities generally improved in November, which also had a significant positive pull on the year-on-year import volume of the current month, mainly due to the correction of the early production and power restriction policy, the power of the policy of ensuring supply and price stability of coal, and the improvement of the profits of high energy consuming enterprises caused by the decline of China's coal price, which led to the recovery of China's industrial production, This will further boost the import demand of industrial enterprises for raw materials and other commodities.

Looking forward to the future, considering the export substitution effect brought by overseas epidemic and the volume price structure of China's export commodities, China's export growth in December is likely to continue to maintain a rapid growth level of about 15%. Although the high increase in export volume has limited effect on alleviating the current downward pressure on the economy, it has a strong positive effect on supporting the RMB exchange rate. Under the background that the Federal Reserve may speed up taper, this will reduce the constraint of China's monetary policy margin. In terms of import, considering that the accelerated growth of import volume in November was mainly due to the recovery of industrial production caused by the policy adjustment on the supply side rather than the improvement on the demand side, it is expected that the space for further acceleration is limited, in addition, the impact of the decline of commodity prices in November and the convergence of year-on-year growth on import prices will be gradually reflected, and the base will rise in the same period last year, We expect the year-on-year growth rate of import volume in December to drop to about 20%.

 

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