The Fed “turned Eagle” and OPEC + maintained output increase; In November, the improvement of China’s property market was limited and pork prices further converged.
1. Food prices turned down. Shandong vegetable wholesale price index changed from positive to negative month on month, down 1.73% and up 20.39% year-on-year; The average wholesale price of pork of the Ministry of agriculture increased slightly by 0.27% month on month, and the year-on-year decline expanded to 40.09%; The settlement price of active contracts of pig futures decreased by 3.18% month on month.
2. Commodity prices are weak and volatile. According to China Central Television Network, as of December 2, at least 30 countries and regions around the world have reported cases of Omicron virus infection, and the market risk aversion has heated up. However, the US response to Omicron is relatively “moderate”. On December 2, US President Biden’s speech on the covid-19 epidemic plan in winter showed that the US measures to deal with Omicron did not include the new “blockade plan”, but relied on existing tools such as vaccines and testing to curb its spread. The key points of this set of measures include: requiring inbound passengers to undergo covid-19 testing; Extend the requirement for wearing masks on public transport to March 18; Promote vaccination and covid-19 testing. As the U.S. response measures were relatively “moderate”, most U.S. stocks and international commodities rebounded on the same day.
The subsequent rise in oil prices is still under pressure. At a congressional hearing this week, US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell abandoned the “temporary” expression of inflation and said that the Fed would discuss accelerating the reduction of bond purchase at the next interest rate meeting. With regard to the recurrence of the epidemic, Powell pointed out in his statement that this may reduce people’s willingness to work, exacerbate supply chain disruption and increase the uncertainty of inflation. Subsequently, Fed officials including Quarles, Bostic and Daly said that the Fed may accelerate the reduction and increase interest rates in advance, and mester is even open to the number of interest rate increases next year. OPEC + this week’s ministerial meeting maintained the previous production increase plan. According to the financial times, a US government delegation visited Saudi Arabia this week. The differences between the United States and Saudi Arabia on crude oil production seem to be narrowing.
Brent and WTI crude oil prices decreased by 11.72% and 11.96% month on month, respectively. The EIA report shows that the average crude oil production of the United States increased by 100000 barrels to 11.6 million barrels / day in the week of November 26, and the average supply of crude oil products in four weeks was 20.723 million barrels / day, an increase of 7.1% over the same period last year.
Nonferrous metals generally declined. LME copper and aluminum prices decreased by 2.06% and 1.08% month on month respectively; Copper and gold prices fell 1.36% month on month.
China’s cement price index fell 2.44% month on month; The comprehensive steel price index decreased by 0.94% month on month; China’s iron ore price index rose 1.51% month on month; The operating rate of blast furnace decreased by 0.85% month on month.
3. Transaction differentiation in the property market. The total price of land traded in 100 large and medium-sized cities rose 184.41% month on month, and the premium rate of land traded rose 1.82% month on month. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities increased by 1.71% month on month, the transaction area of first and second tier cities increased by 18.16% and 10.93% month on month respectively, and the transaction area of third tier cities decreased by 27.98% month on month. In November, the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities was about 13.6 million square meters, about 23% lower than the average value in the same period in the previous 10 years (2011-2020). In September and October, the transaction area was about 27% and 31% lower than the average value in the same period in the previous 10 years respectively. Relatively speaking, the property market in large and medium-sized cities in November was better than that in the previous two months, but the range was limited.
Risk tips: the real economy outside China has changed beyond expectations, inflation has risen beyond expectations, and overseas epidemic prevention and control has exceeded expectations.
