research conclusion
Event: on December 6, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the economic work in 2022.
Policy setting "steady growth": the Politburo meeting pointed out that next year's economic work should be stable and seek progress while maintaining stability. The formulation of "stable" is the first reappearance after the central economic work at the end of 2019, which is of signal significance.
The meeting made a positive statement on real estate, The construction of indemnificatory housing will partially offset the downward pressure on real estate: (1) the recent statements of the regulators on real estate include: on October 15, the central bank "some financial institutions had some misunderstandings about the financing management rules of the 'third line and fourth gear' of 30 pilot real estate enterprises"; in November, Liu he mentioned in the article "must achieve high-quality development" in the people's daily "Comply with the high-quality housing needs of residents, better solve the housing problems of residents, and promote the steady and healthy development and virtuous circle of the real estate industry"; On December 3, relevant personnel from the central bank, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and the China Securities Regulatory Commission answered a reporter's question on Evergrande, and mentioned that "we should focus on meeting the needs of first home and improved housing mortgage, and reasonably issue real estate development loans and M & A loans". The emphasis on residential attributes in the above statements has boosted market confidence, and the mention of M & A loans is also worthy of attention, The statement of "supporting the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers and promote the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate industry" at this Politburo meeting is another confirmation of easing the liquidity risk of the real estate industry from the perspective of supervision; (2) The meeting proposed to promote the construction of indemnificatory housing. In "how important is the role of rental housing investment", we pointed out that indemnificatory housing investment has driven the overall real estate investment growth of 0.7 percentage points in the first three quarters of this year (with a total growth of 8.8%), this pull will expand to 1.52 percentage points next year, but it needs to be taken into account that without relevant policies, these plots may also become pure houses to be sold. Therefore, it can not be fully understood as increment, but a buffer against the decline of traditional real estate prosperity.
Active fiscal policies should improve efficiency and pay more attention to accuracy and sustainability. Prudent monetary policy should be flexible and moderate and maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity: among them, the "flexible and moderate" of monetary policy has been reflected. On December 6, the central bank announced a comprehensive reduction of reserve requirement by 50bp on December 15, releasing 1.2 trillion long-term funds, some of which are used to replace MLF due in the current month. This reduction will also help credit "get off to a good start" at the beginning of next year.
The subdivided areas mentioned at the meeting include expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption, intellectual property, manufacturing, real estate, science and technology, regional strategy, market-oriented allocation of factors, opening to the outside world, people's livelihood policies, employment and fertility policies, basic old-age insurance, provision of public services in permanent residence, epidemic prevention, energy security, wages of migrant workers, Winter Olympic Games, winter Paralympic Games, etc; The meeting did not mention restrictive policies for some industries (the Politburo meeting in July mentioned improving the supervision system for overseas listing of enterprises, Resolutely Curbing the blind development of "two high" projects, etc.).
Risk tips:
The spread of mutant strains suppresses consumption and manufacturing investment;
The liquidity risk of real estate enterprises continued to spread.
