In November, export growth narrowed, import growth expanded, and the trade surplus narrowed slightly.
The year-on-year growth rate of imports accelerated significantly. According to the data denominated in RMB, the total value of China’s imports and exports in November was 3.72 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.5% and a month on month increase of 11.4%, including exports of 2.09 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.6%, 3.7 percentage points lower than the previous value; Imports reached 1.63 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26%, an increase of 11.5 percentage points over the previous value; The trade surplus was 460.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.7%, and the scale of the surplus was 85.22 billion yuan lower than the previous value. In dollar terms, China’s total import and export value in November increased by 26.1% year-on-year and 12.2% month on month; Exports increased by 22% year-on-year and 8.4% month on month; Imports increased by 31.7% year-on-year and 17.6% month on month; The trade surplus decreased by 3.4% year-on-year.
ASEAN remains the largest trading partner, and the proportion of trade volume between the United States and Europe has decreased. In terms of countries, China’s total import and export to ASEAN in November was US $86.28 billion, accounting for 14.9%. It is still China’s largest trading partner, of which exports increased by 22.3% and imports increased by 35.7% year-on-year. In November, the total import and export to the EU amounted to US $77.4 billion, accounting for 13.4%, of which the export increased by 33.5% year-on-year, the import increased by 4.2% year-on-year, and the import growth rate became positive compared with October. In November, the total import and export to the United States amounted to US $72.49 billion, accounting for 12.5%, of which the export increased by 5.3% year-on-year, the year-on-year growth rate decreased significantly by 17.4 percentage points compared with the previous month, the import increased by 22.0% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate increased significantly by 17.5 percentage points compared with the previous month. In the import and export volume structure of major trading partners in November, the proportion of the United States decreased by 0.5 percentage points again, that of the EU decreased by 0.4 percentage points, and that of ASEAN increased by 0.8 percentage points compared with October. From the perspective of trade balance, China’s main trade surplus in November still came from the United States and the European Union, but the scale of trade surplus with the United States and Europe decreased compared with October, and the trade surplus decreased month on month.
The import growth rate of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) and industrial raw materials remained high. Among the main export products, the export volume of light industrial products such as luggage, toys, shoes and boots maintained a rapid growth rate in November, with a year-on-year cumulative growth rate of more than 35%, but the growth rate decreased slightly compared with October. In terms of cycle and industrial semi-finished products, the export volume of fertilizer, steel, automobile, chassis and LCD also maintained the previous high growth rate, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 83.10%, 79.70%, 124.30% and 45.10% respectively. However, except steel, the growth rate also decreased compared with October. In terms of imported products, the varieties with cumulative year-on-year high growth are further concentrated in Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) and industrial raw materials, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of imports of grain, natural gas, iron and copper ore is still higher than 50%.
The price performance of export products is still strong. The products with high price growth are mainly cycle products and industrial semi-finished products, mainly fertilizers, aluminum materials, liquid crystal display panels, etc. In terms of the price of imported products, the import volume of iron ore, crude oil, soybeans and other commodities decreased, and the import volume and price of copper, coal and natural gas increased simultaneously. Other products with increased import prices include the average price of plastics in primary shape increased by 30.6%, the average price of refined oil increased by 35.6%, the average price of steel increased by 47.2%, and the average price of copper and copper materials increased by 36.9%.
In the first half of 2022, China’s supply chain advantage is expected to be maintained, and the export growth rate may remain resilient. Although under the influence of the high base in the same period last year, the year-on-year growth rate of exports in November decreased compared with the previous month, from the growth level in the same period in previous years, the year-on-year growth rate of exports in that month is still at the highest level in the same period in 10 years, and the global comparative advantage of China’s production capacity still exists. It is worth mentioning that in November, China’s export trade volume of processing and assembly with supplied materials reached 52.08 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 23.10%, the highest in the year; Since this year, the year-on-year growth rate of processing and assembly trade with supplied materials has continued to pick up. Considering that processing with supplied materials is provided by foreign investors, it reflects that foreign investors continue to pay high attention to China’s production capacity, which supports our judgment on China’s production capacity advantage to a certain extent.
Risk tip: global inflation is rising too fast; Liquidity flows back to US debt; The impact of the global covid-19 epidemic has expanded.
