Main points
Foreign trade highlights continue
In November 2021, the export remained strong and the high trade surplus continued. Since November, the overseas epidemic has slowed down, and overseas demand has continued to boom, supporting China to maintain export growth. From the perspective of countries, the export growth rate to ASEAN continued to rise, becoming the main driving force driving the growth of China's foreign trade. The export growth rate to the United States, the European Union and Japan declined slightly for two consecutive months, but the average growth rate in the two years remained rising, and the demand from the United States, Europe and Japan remained strong. From the perspective of export commodity structure, the export of mechanical and electrical products and labor-intensive products continued to rise, and the growth rate of festival consumer goods such as clothing was faster.
As exports continued to be strong, the high surplus continued further. However, the marginal decline of the high trade surplus in November was mainly due to the improvement of imports in November. The global shortage of raw materials and supply chain bottlenecks have not been fundamentally improved, and the impact of high prices of imported raw materials on China's terms of trade still exists.
Foreign trade underpins the economy and looks at domestic demand in the long run
In November, China's exports remained at a high level and the growth rate increased. Under the expectation of cooling down of China's real estate and soft economy, the growth rate of foreign trade remained the driving force of economic growth during the year. The process of global economic recovery has shifted from high-speed growth to degraded operation. The further growth capacity of foreign demand of major economies such as the United States, Japan and Europe is limited, but China ASEAN trade has higher growth potential, which is further released with the help of RCEP. At the same time, as an important supplier of energy and raw materials to China, the growth of trade with ASEAN will help alleviate inflation concerns.
In the short term, the change of epidemic situation will make overseas dependence on China's exports continue, but the decline of foreign demand in the future is still a probable event. Although the time is delayed, it only affects the process and rhythm of change and will not affect the direction. The driving force of economic growth will shift more to domestic demand. The pressure of market demand on property demand and the slowing down of consumption growth in post epidemic era will show that macroeconomic regulation and control will be more dependent on promoting investment rebound.
The high light of foreign trade continued and the economy remained stable
The repeated virus will obviously further prolong the "high light" moment of China's foreign trade, and China's anti epidemic dividend can continue for at least 2-3q; However, the surplus will not change the balance of payments Bureau, that is, it will not lead to changes in China's currency supply environment. This is confirmed by the stable situation of foreign exchange reserves. The basis of insufficient money supply capacity of China's monetary base has not changed, and the central bank will further reduce reserve requirements and interest rates in the future.
The good situation of foreign trade continues and contributes a lot to maintaining economic stability! But the overall economy will not change at the bottom of the bottom. Only after the housing bubble has been completely controlled, can the economy go up to a higher level.
Risk statement
Inflation rises too fast; The epidemic situation is repeated.
