research conclusion
Event: on December 7, the General Administration of Customs released the import and export data. In November 2021, the total import and export value was US $579.34 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 26.1% (the former value was 24.3%), of which the export increased by 22% (the former value was 27.1%) and the import increased by 31.7% (the former value was 20.6%).
The export growth continued the strong trend, with the export amount of US $325.53 billion, another record high, and the two-year compound growth rate was further higher than the previous value. The two-year compound growth rate of exports from July to November was 12.9%, 17%, 18.5%, 18.7% and 21.3% respectively. There was no weakening trend in export growth, and the growth rate in November was still expanding. The background of strong exports is the continuous recovery of the global economy. In November, JPMorgan's global comprehensive PMI index was 54.8%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points over the previous month. The PMI of manufacturing in the United States and the euro zone also increased by 0.3 and 0.1 percentage points respectively over the previous month. The global economic recovery continued to bring trade expansion. In November, the two-year average growth rate of South Korean exports also increased significantly by 8 percentage points over the previous month.
At the structural level, the export of intermediate products continued to grow, which was the main driving factor of export. The growth rate of products in the post real estate cycle fell. The growth rate of mechanical and electrical products further increased. In November, the two-year average growth rate of mechanical and electrical products exports was 20.9%, 2.8 percentage points higher than that of last month, and the proportion in total exports also increased by 0.4 percentage points to 59.8% compared with that of last month; The export growth rate of labor-intensive products generally rose, and the two-year average growth rate of luggage and toys increased by 0.9 and 9.8 percentage points respectively; In the post real estate cycle, the export growth rate of products declined. The two-year average growth rates of furniture and its parts, lamps, lighting devices and similar products were 20.3% and 26.2% respectively, down 2.7 and 8.2 percentage points respectively from the previous month.
By country, the export growth rate to major countries has increased, among which the export to the EU has increased significantly. In November, the two-year average growth rates of exports to ASEAN, the United States and the EU were 16%, 24% and 20.4% respectively, an increase of 3.5, 1.4 and 4.6 percentage points respectively over the previous month. Exports to the EU have jumped for two consecutive months, which may be related to the sharp rise in the number of new diagnoses in Europe since the end of September. Different from the past waves of global epidemics, the rise in this round of new diagnoses is mainly due to the deterioration of the epidemic in Europe, accounting for more than two-thirds of the new diagnoses in Europe.
"Ensuring price and supply stability" promoted the substantial growth of imports. In November, the year-on-year growth rate of imports was as high as 31.7%, with an average growth rate of 17.3% in two years, an increase of 4.9 percentage points over the previous month. From January to November, coal imports increased by 10.6% year-on-year (the former value was 1.9%). The policy of "ensuring price and stable supply" drove the import of some energy products. In addition, the high increase in imports also showed that China's demand in some fields was good, and the import growth rate of electromechanical products was 22% (the former value was 22.5%).
Strong export resilience: this round of global import demand expansion is mainly due to the strong recovery of the U.S. economy, while the driving force of the U.S. recovery is mainly due to residents' commodity consumption under government subsidies and residents' real estate investment under low interest rate environment. At present, the "excess savings" of U.S. residents can maintain consumption for about two months; Export structure, Due to the unprecedented surge in consumer demand for durable goods in the United States in 2021 (including the post real estate cycle), among the products imported by the United States from China, the proportion of manufactured products classified by materials and miscellaneous manufactured products continues to rise. With the continuous repair of the follow-up industrial chain in Europe and the United States, the export proportion of machinery and transportation equipment is likely to rise. From the perspective of share, there is no need to worry too much. The export share of next year is likely to be higher than that before the epidemic, and the mutation virus will increase Strengthen the stickiness of China's export share.
Risk tips:
The epidemic continues to affect global demand and the recovery of industrial chain;
Changes in Sino US relations affect the trade environment.
