The export exceeding expectations in November was mainly driven by Europe: at present, the consumer demand for durable goods in Europe is strong, but the epidemic repeatedly leads to insufficient production and supply, driving China’s export exceeding expectations. In November, the year-on-year growth rate of China’s exports to Europe recorded 33.5%, 22% higher than the overall export level. Manufacturing PMI remained in the expansion range, recording 58.4% and 58.3% in October. Previously, the consumption level of durable goods in the United States increased year-on-year from January to June 2021, driving China’s overall high export of mechanical and electrical products in the first half of the year. However, at present, the consumption of durable goods in the United States has fallen year-on-year; On the contrary, the consumption level of durable goods in EU countries showed an unprecedented high growth from July to November, which is reflected in that the European CCFI shipping index is much higher than that of other countries; In addition, in November, the epidemic in Europe and China was serious, many countries were blocked, and some industrial production was affected. The European Union needed to import a large number of manufacturing products from China, driving China’s exports to exceed expectations this month. In November, China’s export of mechanical and electrical products was 37.3%, an increase of 8 percentage points over the previous month.
Although China’s exports to the United States in November recorded a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, it does not mean that the United States has caused a drag on China’s exports. According to the formula “yoy of the current month = yoy of the previous month + mom of the current month – Mom of the same period last year”, the low year-on-year export to the United States in November was mainly due to the high 18.59% mom of exports in November last year. Although the two-year average growth rate of exports to the United States in November was 24%, it was mainly contributed by the high year-on-year growth of 46.09% in November last year. At present, the United States still has the problem of supply chain shortage, and the inventory sales ratio of manufacturing retailers is far lower than the level before the epidemic. The new round of epidemic may also affect production and transportation, causing more uncertainty for China’s subsequent exports, and the inflection point of exports may be delayed.
In terms of exports, this year, the strong growth of mechanical and electrical products mainly brought by the production demand of durable goods in Europe and America has contributed more than half of China’s total export value; At present, the export effect of Christmas has gradually faded, and the demand for major light industrial products has fallen sharply. From January to November 2022, the export growth of automobile chassis was the fastest, with a total growth of 108.4% in the first 11 months, reflecting the strong production demand of manufacturing industry in European and American developed countries; In contrast, household appliances grew by only 16.3% from January to November this year. The housing market in the United States was strong in the second quarter of 2021, driving the demand for consumer goods in the post cycle industry of real estate. At present, the real estate market is callback, and the export of home appliances is pulled back. In terms of light industrial products, prior to Christmas goods preparation from September to October, China’s exports of light industrial consumer goods such as bags increased year-on-year, but the export growth rate of such goods fell in November, and the Christmas effect faded.
In terms of import, in addition to the “simultaneous increase in volume and price” of the overall import of coal and natural gas, China’s imports of iron ore, crude oil, soybeans and other commodities in the first 11 months were “reduced in volume and increased in price”. In the first 11 months, the import volume of coal totaled 292 million tons, an increase of 10.6% over last year, and the average import price was 676.9 yuan per ton, an increase of 39.7%; In November alone, the import volume of coal increased by 198%, and the import amount increased by 793% year-on-year. The import volume of natural gas from 1 to 11 increased by 21.8% and the import price increased by 20.7%. The import volume of iron ore, crude oil and steel decreased compared with last year.
Risk factors: the global epidemic exceeded expectations, and China US trade policy exceeded expectations.
