Economic stability has been raised to a new height, and the Politburo meeting is still satisfied with the economic growth in 2021. Stable high frequency appears in the economic outlook of 2022 and is also the focus of economic work in 2022. The "six stabilities and six guarantees" at the Politburo meeting in December was re mentioned, and it also gave a higher meaning to economic stability. Stabilizing the economy is stabilizing the overall social situation and opening a good environment for the convening of the 20th National Congress. This Politburo meeting did not mention the complexity of the international environment and the impact of the covid-19 epidemic. In this regard, we believe that economic policy and monetary policy are mainly self-centered. We have expected the tightening of global financial conditions, and the friction between China and the United States continues. At the same time, covid-19 epidemic prevention and control may be relaxed in 2022. In particular, the markets of developed countries will gradually develop their borders, and China may gradually open up conditionally after the middle of 2022.
Steady monetary policy continued. The general tone of monetary policy is similar to that of the Politburo meetings on April 30 and July 30. Monetary policy should "maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity". With the gradual decline of the economy, monetary policy will be gradually loose. In July and December 2021, the central bank lowered the deposit reserve ratio, especially in December, which indicates the easing of monetary policy. Monetary policy: (1) a slight deregulation of the real estate industry; (2) credit support for energy conservation and emission reduction and small and medium-sized enterprises.
Active fiscal policy improves efficiency. The statement of fiscal policy at the Politburo meeting in December is relatively simple. Active fiscal policy should improve efficiency and pay more attention to accuracy and sustainability. In view of the limited financial capital, the probability of a significant upward trend in infrastructure investment is small. At the same time, emphasizing the sustainability of financial capital means that our infrastructure may not rise rapidly.
Five policy directions 1. Micro policy: China's micro policy mainly emphasizes increasing consumption and stabilizing investment. 2. Structural policy: stabilize the industrial chain and support real estate. 3. Science and technology policy: the emphasis on the science and technology industry has not changed since 2020. China continues to strengthen the national strategic science and technology interest rate and proposes to realize a virtuous cycle of science and technology, industry and finance in the expression of scientific and technological innovation. 4. Reform and opening up policy: the meeting proposed to pay close attention to the pilot of comprehensive reform of market-oriented allocation of factors. Factor market mainly refers to land, labor, capital, data, etc. 5. Social policies: mainly livelihood policies. Implementing employment, promoting fertility, promoting old-age care and improving public services are all related to the basic livelihood of the people. They will still be steadily promoted in 2022.
New formulation: in the virtuous cycle of science and technology, industry and finance, the new third board, the Beijing stock exchange, the gem and the science and innovation board support science and innovation enterprises, and the banking and insurance industry will also favor science and innovation enterprises.
The December meeting did not mention or emphasize common prosperity. We believe that common prosperity is a process of gradual implementation. Carbon neutralization and dual control are not emphasized. With or without emphasis, it is expected that carbon neutralization and dual control will still be carried out, but limited production and power will occur in local areas and industries. Cross cycle regulation is not emphasized. We believe that cross cycle regulation has begun and need not be explained.
