Macro categories:
On December 8, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar broke through the 6.35 mark in the afternoon. Since late August, the US dollar index has been strong. In addition, the central bank's RRR reduction has not affected the strong performance of the RMB. We believe that it is the high prosperity of exports and the high attractiveness of RMB assets that form a strong support for the RMB exchange rate. In the future, considering the impact of the epidemic, foreign demand will remain strong. We expect the RMB exchange rate to remain strong in the short term, which is good for the internal stock index.
In terms of Chinese commodities, the data of debt issuance and road transportation of high-frequency real estate enterprises we tracked pointed out that the economy was still not optimistic in December. With the gradual realization of the steady growth expectation, we should be vigilant against the risk of increasing the fluctuation of domestic demand industrial products under the steady growth expectation and the realistic game of pressure.
Overseas, the impact of O variant is basically exhausted. The experimental data of some pharmaceutical companies show that the current vaccine is still effective for O variant, and the lethal rate of this variant is lower than Delta, showing more mild and mild symptoms. In the follow-up, we need to pay attention to the US CPI data in November on December 10 and the interest rate resolutions of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank on December 16, focusing on whether the tightening pace of the two countries is accelerated.
Strategy (order of strength): the three major stock indexes (IH / if / IC) are bargain hunting and multi matching; commodities are neutral, of which Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) can still bargain hunting and multi matching; treasury bonds are neutral;
Risk point: geopolitical risk; Global epidemic risk; Deterioration of Sino US relations; The situation in the Taiwan Strait.
