In terms of the external environment, the number of new cases per day in the world is still rising slowly. While the concern about Omicron virus has slowed down, the potential variation of the virus may still make the epidemic inevitable. However, as we said in our annual report, with the promotion of vaccination and the decline of mortality, the severity of people flow control in overseas epidemic response will be gradually reduced. In terms of economy, the US unemployment rate continued to decline to 4.2% in November while the labor participation rate increased slightly. The reduction of unemployment rate, the recovery of labor participation rate and more lasting high inflation have continuously raised the expectation of the Federal Reserve to accelerate the pace of taper; At the same time, the EU ZEW Economic prosperity index continued to rise slightly in December, indicating that the impact of the epidemic was gentle again.
In terms of China's environment, the import and export data in November continued to be better than expected. Behind the decline in the year-on-year growth rate of exports was the highly resilient month on month expansion, and the month on month growth rate of imports in the same period increased significantly with the help of the steady growth care policy. In terms of inflation, the month on month growth rate of CPI fell to 0.4% in November, but it still promoted the year-on-year growth rate of that month to rise by 0.8 percentage points to 2.3%, of which pork price became an important reason for the month on month rise of CPI; In the same period, the month on month growth rate of PPI dropped significantly to 0, and ordered the year-on-year growth rate of the current month to decline by 0.6 percentage points to 12.9%, the scissors difference between the year-on-year growth rate of CPI and PPI fell by 1.4 percentage points to 10.6%, and the cost pressure of middle and downstream enterprises slowed down significantly; Looking ahead, the year-on-year growth rates of CPI and PPI in December will both decline, and the latter will decline more. In terms of policy regulation, the Politburo meeting held this week pointed out that "next year's economic work should be stable and strive for progress while maintaining stability", which once again confirmed the importance of stable growth in current economic work. Moreover, this week, the central bank announced a comprehensive reduction in the reserve requirement, but also lowered the interest rates for supporting agriculture and small refinancing, starting from comprehensive and structural care, Considering the replacement part of MLF that will expire this month, the comprehensive RRR reduction still adheres to the prudent principle of "no flood irrigation".
In terms of high-frequency data, in the downstream, real estate transactions continued to rise slightly, and the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale price 200 index peaked and fell. In the middle reaches, steel prices rebounded slightly and cement prices continued to decline. Upstream, coke and coking coal prices fluctuated at a low level, while power coal prices continued to decline, non-ferrous metal prices remained volatile, precious metal prices decreased significantly, and crude oil prices rebounded.
Risk tip: the development of international epidemic situation exceeded expectations
