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Food prices drove CPI upward year-on-year, and the scattered epidemic affected non food prices. In November, affected by the upward superposition of food prices and low base, CPI increased by 2.3% year-on-year, 0.8 percentage points higher than the previous value. Among them, food prices increased by 1.6% from 2.4% in the previous month, affecting the CPI increase by about 0.3 percentage points; Affected by the still high upstream prices and the base, the increase of non food prices increased by 0.1 percentage points to 2.5% compared with the previous month, and the prices of industrial consumer goods and services increased by 3.9% and 1.5% respectively, both by 0.1 percentage points. The prices of the seven categories rose and fell year-on-year, and the increase of transportation and communication was still the largest, up 0.6 percentage points to 7.6% compared with the previous value. Among them, the price of energy was still high, and the prices of gasoline and diesel increased by 36.7% and 40.6% respectively, driving the year-on-year increase of fuel prices for vehicles by 4.3 percentage points to 35.7%. On a month on month basis, CPI rose by 0.4%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Affected by seasonal consumer demand growth, tight supply of short-term fat pigs and sporadic epidemic, food prices rose by 2.4%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points over the previous month; Affected by the scattered epidemic and the decline in the price increase of some upstream products, the increase of non food prices changed from 0.4% last month to flat. The price increase of industrial consumer goods fell by 0.6 percentage points to 0.3%, of which the price increase of gasoline, diesel and LPG all fell; Affected by the reduction of travel after the festival and the spread of the epidemic, the tourism price changed from a month on month increase of 0.3% to a decrease of 3.5%, of which the air ticket, travel agency charge and hotel accommodation price decreased by 14.8%, 3.8% and 3.7% respectively. In November, the core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose by 1.2% year-on-year, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.
The year-on-year increase in fresh vegetable prices continued to expand, and pork prices rose sharply month on month. On a year-on-year basis, the price of livestock meat decreased by 19.7% in November, 7.0 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. Among them, affected by factors such as weather, transportation cost and base effect, the year-on-year increase in fresh vegetable prices continued to expand by 14.7 percentage points to 30.6% compared with the previous month. Affected by the growth of seasonal consumer demand, the purchase and storage of pork and the decline of the base, the price of pork decreased by 32.7%, 11.3 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. On a month on month basis, except for aquatic products, the prices of other food, tobacco and alcohol subcategories showed an upward trend. The price of livestock meat increased by 5.2% month on month, of which the price of pork increased by 12.2% month on month instead of 2% month on month driven by rising demand; Affected by the simultaneous measures taken by various localities to ensure the supply of “vegetable basket” and the gradual increase in the number of vegetables on the market, the month on month increase in fresh vegetable prices narrowed by 9.8 percentage points to 6.8% compared with the previous month; Under the influence of rising demand and transportation costs, the price of fresh fruit increased by 4.3% month on month, an increase of 1.4 percentage points over the previous month. In December, the high-frequency data showed that the prices of 28 key monitored vegetables were relatively stable, and the pork price was in the upward range. Affected by the continuous transmission of upstream prices, the peak consumption season at the end of the year and the low base in the same period last year, the food CPI may continue to rise steadily in December.
PPI peaked and fell as scheduled, and the differentiation of upstream industries was obvious. On a month on month basis, the PPI in November was flat from a 2.5% rise in the previous month. Among them, the price of means of production changed from an increase of 3.3% to a decrease of 0.1%; The price of means of living increased by 0.4% and expanded by 0.3 percentage points, which reflected that the high price of upstream products was gradually transmitted to means of living. In terms of industry, affected by China’s multi sectoral linkage to curb the irrational rise of coal prices and the increase of coal supply, the prices of coal related products fell; The effect of the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing price in metal related industries showed, and the price fell; However, due to the high fluctuation of international crude oil and natural gas prices, Petrochina Company Limited(601857) and gas related industry prices are still in the upward range. Specifically, the price of coal mining and washing industry changed from an increase of 20.1% to a decrease of 4.9%, the price of coal processing changed from an increase of 12.8% to a decrease of 8.4%, the price of ferrous metal smelting and calendering industry changed from an increase of 3.5% to a decrease of 4.8%, the price of nonferrous metal smelting and calendering industry changed from an increase of 3.6% to a decrease of 1.2%, and the price of oil mining, refining and petroleum product manufacturing Gas production and supply prices rose by more than 4% month on month. On a year-on-year basis, PPI rose by 12.9%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the price of means of production rose by 17.0% and fell by 0.9 percentage points; The price of means of subsistence increased by 1.0%, and the increase was expanded by 0.4 percentage points. Among the 40 industrial categories surveyed, 37 prices rose, an increase of 1 over the previous month. Among the major industries, the coal mining and washing industry has the largest price increase, followed by ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing industry, while the oil and natural gas mining industry has the largest price increase. In December, Nanhua industrial products index rose 21.9% year-on-year, down 14.1 percentage points. The demand for energy in winter is still high, but with the release of strategic oil reserves in many countries, OPEC + maintains its production increase plan. It is expected that the oil price will remain high in the short term, but the upward space is limited, and the emergence of Omicron virus may bring uncertainty. Under the continuous influence of China’s policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, the contradiction between supply and demand has been alleviated. In late November, the prices of various means of production products gradually decreased. Coupled with the gradual rise of last year’s base, it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of industrial producer prices will continue to decline.
CPI is expected to rise moderately and PPI may continue to fall. Among the 2.3% year-on-year increase in CPI in November, the tail turning impact of price changes last year was about 0.6 percentage points, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the previous month; The impact of the new price increase was about 1.7 percentage points, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the previous month. At the end of the year, the rise of seasonal consumer demand promoted the steady rise of food prices. If the impact of the epidemic weakened, non food prices will also be driven, superimposed with the low base effect. It is expected that CPI will continue to rise in December. Among the 12.9% year-on-year increase in PPI in November, the tail warping impact of price changes last year was about 1.2 percentage points, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points over the previous month; The impact of the new price increase was about 11.7 percentage points, unchanged from the previous month. Recently, the policy effect of upstream products, especially coal to maintain supply and stabilize prices, has shown that there is limited room for international crude oil prices to continue to rise. Coupled with the continued rise of the base in the same period last year, PPI may continue to decline. However, it still takes time to solve the contradiction between supply and demand in some industries, and the decline rate of PPI may be moderate.
Risk tip: the crude oil price fluctuates sharply and the demand is lower than expected.
