The year-on-year growth rate of CPI in November was 0.8 percentage points higher than that in October. In addition to the impact of low base, food and energy were the main drivers; The year-on-year growth rate of core CPI remained stable; The resonance of lard in the short term and the transmission of PPI to CPI in the medium term may promote the year-on-year growth rate of CPI to continue to rise after the Spring Festival, but the notification pressure in 2022 is controllable; The year-on-year decline in PPI growth was mainly affected by the increasing implementation of the policy of guaranteed supply and stable price; Pay attention to the sustainability of the upward month on month growth of the price of means of subsistence.
In November, CPI increased by 0.4% month on month, 2.3% year-on-year, core CPI increased by 1.2%, service prices increased by 1.5% year-on-year, and consumer goods prices increased by 2.9% year-on-year.
From a year-on-year perspective, food prices increased by 1.6% from a 2.4% decrease in the previous month, which affected the CPI increase by about 0.30 percentage points, while non food prices increased by 2.5%, which affected the CPI increase by about 2.04 percentage points.
Food prices pushed CPI up rapidly. In the short term, lard resonance is an important factor driving the year-on-year growth of CPI. With the influence of Spring Festival consumption factors, it is expected that the positive contribution of food prices to CPI will continue. In the medium term, we need to pay attention to the conduction effect of the year-on-year rise of PPI on CPI. We believe that CPI will show a gradual upward trend after the Spring Festival in 2022, and the policy target of 3% may be touched or even exceeded in the third quarter. Although the annual CPI growth rate is still below 3% and the inflation pressure is generally controllable, we should pay attention to the impact of changes in inflation expectations on the market.
In November, PPI was flat month on month, with a year-on-year increase of 12.9%, including a year-on-year increase of 17% for means of production and 1% for means of living. Ppirm increased by 17.4% year-on-year. Compared with October, fuel power, building materials, agricultural and sideline products and textile raw materials increased more. With the increasing implementation of the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing price, the rapid rise in the prices of energy and raw materials such as coal and metals has been initially curbed, and the increase of PPI has dropped.
Among the 40 categories of industrial industries surveyed, 37 rose in price, an increase of 1 over the previous month. Among the main industries, the price increases fell in daily, steel and nonferrous metals, and the increases expanded in oil and gas, gas, textile and food manufacturing.
The month on month increase in the price of means of living exceeded expectations. In November, with the increasing implementation of the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing price, the rising trend of industrial raw material prices was curbed, and the prices of coal, steel and nonferrous metals fell month on month to varying degrees. We expect that there is still room for PPI to rise month on month in 2022, but the year-on-year growth rate will gradually decline, maintain a high shock in the first half of the year, and the downward range is more obvious in the second half of the year. However, the price of means of living increased by 0.4% month on month in November. Since the data were available in 2011, only the month on month increase of more than 0.4% occurred in the first half of 2011 and September 2019, and the prices of food, clothing and daily necessities increased significantly month on month. It is necessary to pay attention to the transmission process and range from PPI to CPI price.
Risk tip: global inflation is rising too fast; Liquidity flows back to US debt; The impact of the global covid-19 epidemic has expanded.
