Macro categories:
On December 9, the central bank raised the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 2 percentage points. Referring to the last increase in June 2021, the last round of policy brought the monthly level adjustment of RMB exchange rate exceeding 2%. China's policy attitude has a crucial impact on the trend of RMB exchange rate. We believe that the short-term trend of RMB appreciation will come to an end, but whether it will turn into depreciation or shock in the future still depends on the follow-up exports and the statements of officials. Based on the current high increase of overseas epidemic and strong overseas demand, we expect the RMB exchange rate to enter the shock stage.
In terms of Chinese commodities, the data of debt issuance and road transportation of high-frequency real estate enterprises we tracked pointed out that the economy was still not optimistic in December. In addition, the balance of RMB loans of financial institutions and the stock of social financing scale increased by 11.7% and 10.1% respectively in November, and no significant growth was recorded, indicating that China's credit easing expectation remains to be implemented. Subsequently, with the gradual realization of the steady growth expectation, we should be vigilant against the risk of increasing the fluctuation of domestic demand industrial products under the steady growth expectation and the realistic game of pressure.
Overseas, the impact of O variant is basically exhausted. The experimental data of some pharmaceutical companies show that the current vaccine is still effective for O variant, and the lethal rate of this variant is lower than Delta, showing more mild and mild symptoms. In the follow-up, we need to pay attention to the US CPI data in November on December 10 and the interest rate resolutions of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank on December 16, focusing on whether the tightening pace of the two countries is accelerated.
Strategy (order of strength): the three major stock indexes (IH / if / IC) are bargain hunting and multi matching; commodities are neutral, of which Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) can still bargain hunting and multi matching; treasury bonds are neutral;
Risk point: geopolitical risk; Global epidemic risk; Deterioration of Sino US relations; The situation in the Taiwan Strait.
