Food and non food prices rose year-on-year, and CPI continued to rise year-on-year. In November, affected by the rise of food prices and non food prices, combined with the low base in the same period last year, the CPI in November increased by 2.3% year-on-year, 0.8 percentage points higher than the previous value, 0.4% higher than the previous month, 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous month, 0.9% higher than the previous 11 months, 2.7% in the same period last year, and 1.8 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The core CPI excluding energy and food this month was 1.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The new price increase factor this month was 1.7% and the influence of tail warping factor was 0.6%.
Under the influence of tight supply and increased demand, the year-on-year growth rate of food prices changed from negative to positive. Affected by the sharp rise in the prices of fresh vegetables, eggs and aquatic products and the traditional peak consumption season of pork in winter, the food price in November increased by 1.6% year-on-year from 2.4% in the previous month, affecting the CPI increase by about 0.3 percentage points. Among them, the price of livestock meat decreased by 19.7%, 7 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. Affected by seasons, rising transportation costs and other factors, the price of fresh vegetables continued to rise year-on-year this month, rising sharply to 30.6% from 15.9% last month. In addition, there was a strong demand for eggs and aquatic products. Eggs and freshwater fish rose by 20.1% and 18.0% respectively, and the price of edible vegetable oil also rose sharply by 9.7%.
The price increase of industrial consumer goods continued to expand, and the price of non food items increased slightly year-on-year. In November, non food prices expanded by 0.1 percentage points to 2.5% compared with the previous value, still at a high position in the year. Among them, the price increase of industrial consumer goods expanded by 0.1 percentage point to 3.9%. Since this year, the high operation of PPI has a certain conduction effect on the year-on-year growth of CPI and a certain supporting effect on the expansion of the price increase of industrial consumer goods. In terms of industries, the prices of the seven major industries other than food continued to rise and fall year-on-year: among them, the prices of transportation and communication, education, culture and entertainment and housing increased by 7.6%, 3.0% and 1.7% respectively, and the prices of medical care, clothing, daily necessities and services increased by 0.6%, 0.5% and 0.5% respectively; The prices of other supplies and services decreased by 0.6%.
Commodity prices fell and the effect of the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices appeared, and the high growth rate of PPI fell. In November, the PPI fell by 0.6 percentage points to 12.9% compared with the previous value, and the growth rate showed a high downward trend. In November, the PPI was 0% month on month, down 2.5 percentage points from the previous month. From January to November, PPI rose to 7.9%, up from – 2.0% in the same period last year, up 9.9 percentage points from the same period last year. The price of means of production in this month was 17.0% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points over the previous month; The price of means of subsistence was 1.0% year-on-year, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous value. The tail warping factor of PPI is 1.2%, and the impact of new price rise is 11.7%.
The price increase in mining has narrowed, and the price increase of means of production has fallen. Affected by the policy correction, the policy of ensuring supply and price stability and the decline of some international commodity prices, the price increase of some upstream industries has been corrected, which restricts the continuous high rise of the price of means of production. In terms of industries, the rapid rise in the prices of energy and raw materials such as coal and metals has been initially curbed, of which the coal mining and washing industry increased by 88.8%, down 14.9 percentage points; Ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry rose 31.0%, down 8.9 percentage points; Nonferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry rose 26.5%, down 3.0 percentage points. From the perspective of overseas commodity prices, there is still a contradiction between international energy supply and demand. Affected by the new mutation virus, the international crude oil price corrected in November, but it is still at a high level in recent two years. If OPEC + does not formulate and implement an effective additional growth plan, it is difficult to significantly improve the tight crude oil supply in the short term, and the oil price may still be in a high range in the short term, However, the reduction of bond purchase scale and other operations launched by the Federal Reserve in November may inhibit the upward movement of commodity prices to a certain extent.
Ppirm continued to rise year-on-year, and the scissors difference between the purchase and sales prices of industrial products increased compared with the previous month. In November, ppirm increased by 17.4% year-on-year, 0.3 percentage points higher than the previous value, 1.0% month on month in November, 1.6 percentage points lower than the previous month, 10.7% higher from January to November, and – 2.5% in the same period last year, 13.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The scissors difference between purchase price and ex factory price this month has expanded compared with last month. The growth rate of PPI fell in November, but it is still at a high level. At the same time, the production cost of enterprises has not decreased significantly, and the cost pressure faced by the middle and downstream industries may still be large. From the perspective of the industry, the price increase of fuel and power increased by 10.4 percentage points to 40.7%, the price increase of ferrous materials decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 22.6%, the price increase of nonferrous metal materials and wires increased by 3.2 percentage points to 25.8%, and the price increase of chemical raw materials increased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.9%.
In the follow-up, it is expected that there is still some upward space for CPI, and PPI may fall slightly, but it is still in a high range in the short term. CPI: the decline in poultry prices in the fourth quarter is close to the bottom of the cycle. The end of the year is the peak season for livestock meat consumption. There is an upward basis for livestock meat product prices, or provide support for food prices. In addition, with the gradual improvement of the economic demand side, the service price may also be increased. The core CPI may maintain a moderate trend as a whole. Continuing the previous judgment, there is still room for upward CPI during the year, but the range is moderate. The overall trend of the whole year is from low to high, and this trend is expected to remain until the first quarter of next year under the influence of festival factors, In addition, high PPI will still boost CPI in the short term, and CPI may show a trend of high before low next year. In terms of PPI, the falling trend of coal prices in mid and late October continued in November. At the same time, the prices of high energy consuming raw materials and industrial products such as iron ore and cement continued to callback. The year-on-year growth rate of PPI may maintain a downward trend. Affected by the shift of global monetary policy, the level of global inflation may ease. At the same time, the policy of maintaining supply and stabilizing prices will also support the return of PPI growth to the normal level, Superimposed on the impact of the high base of PPI growth this year, it is expected that the PPI growth rate may fall next year. Overseas, although the price increase of international crude oil, iron ore, copper and other raw materials has slowed down, and the continuous rise of the US dollar index since the fourth quarter has partially alleviated the pressure of commodity price rise, the impact of the current European energy crisis has not been eliminated, and the fundamental contradiction between energy supply and demand has not been solved, There are still internal and external disturbance factors that hinder the return of China’s upstream product prices to the normal level. We believe that we still need to continue to pay attention to the negative impact of the current high cost on the profit margins of midstream and downstream enterprises.
