Exports remained at a relatively high level and imports increased significantly. In November, the import and export volume was US $579.3 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 26.1%. Among them, the export was US $325.5 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 22%, but it still maintained a year-on-year growth rate of more than 20%, and the month on month growth rate was 8.43%, an increase of 10.25 percentage points over the previous month, and the overall export remained high; Imports reached US $253.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 31.7%, and the import volume and import growth rate increased significantly. The trade surplus reached US $71.71 billion, down US $12.83 billion from the previous month.
The global impact of the epidemic continues to be superimposed, and the price transmission promotes the export to maintain a high boom. The demand for festivals in Europe and America is weakened, and the export of related products is weakened. There are two main reasons for the high export boom: on the one hand, the impact of the epidemic has led to the continuous substitution effect of China’s exports. In November, there were 15.57 million new cases confirmed by covid-19, an increase of 2.7 million cases compared with October. The export of epidemic related products maintained an increasing trend, and the year-on-year growth of textiles, including masks, and medical instruments and devices were 10% and 16.67% respectively. On the other hand, the price is transmitted to the terminal. According to the export price index released by the General Administration of Customs on November 15, the export price increased by 8.1% year-on-year in October. However, the weakening demand for festivals in Europe and the United States led to the slowdown in the export growth of some related products: the year-on-year growth of exports of labor-intensive products slowed down. The year-on-year growth of luggage, clothing, toys and furniture were 28.95%, 22.82%, 18.83% and 1.89% respectively, down 15.85, 1.87, 6.19 and 12.47 percentage points respectively compared with the previous month. In terms of subregions, under the background of weakening holiday demand in Europe and the United States, exports to the United States and the European Union slowed down, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.27% and 33.46% respectively, down 17.41 and 10.85 percentage points respectively compared with the previous month. With the increase of the base, the growth rate of exports to Japan fell to 12.58%, and the entrepot trade through Hong Kong fluctuated slightly, with a year-on-year increase of 19.45%; Exports to ASEAN continued to maintain a positive trend, with a year-on-year increase of 22.3%. The fall of commodity prices combined with the easing of supply chain tension promoted the high increase of imports. The prices of major commodities decreased in November: the average price of OPEC package of crude oil fell by $1.74 to $80.37/barrel in November compared with the previous month, and the average value of mypic imported iron ore composite index fell to 90.65 in November, falling below 100 for the first time in 16 months, which has been halved compared with the peak in June. In addition, the shipping index also fell. The average value of Baltic dry bulk index in November decreased significantly by 42.31% to 2780.45 compared with October. Under the background of falling commodity prices, in consideration of maintaining supply chain stability and diluting costs, the demand for some commodities remained at a high level: the import volume of iron ore increased by 6.93% year-on-year, ending the negative growth trend lasting for five months, the import volume increased by 1.93% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate changed from negative to positive; Due to the relatively small decline in crude oil prices, crude oil imports decreased by 7.87% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed significantly, and the import volume increased by 80.05% year-on-year. In addition, the recent improvement of the epidemic situation in Southeast Asia has alleviated the current tense situation of the global supply chain, thus driving the rise of imports of high-tech and electromechanical industries. For example, as an important supplier of automobile chips, Malaysia’s new diagnosis in China has fallen back to the level before the emergence of delta +, and its imports to Malaysia have increased significantly by 43.25% year-on-year, an increase of 17.29 percentage points over the previous month. The import of high-tech and electromechanical industries increased by 19.96% and 15.81% year-on-year, 6.43 and 9.79 percentage points higher than that of the previous month respectively. In terms of countries, the year-on-year growth rate of imports to the United States increased significantly by 17.49 percentage points to 22.05% over the previous month, mainly driven by the accelerated growth of soybean imports; Under the short-term mitigation of the supply chain, imports to Japan, South Korea and ASEAN improved significantly, which were 14.35%, 28.57% and 35.71% respectively; Despite the decline in commodity prices, under the low base factor, imports to Brazil and Australia remained at a high level, 28.15% and 37.33% respectively.
The disturbance of epidemic uncertainty to the global economy will continue, and exports will remain high in the short term. In November, although the global diagnosis of covid-19 increased, it was relieved in some areas, but the emergence of covid-19 variant Omicron may drive the diagnosis of covid-19 higher again: on November 26, after an emergency meeting, the World Health Organization decided to list Omicron, a new variant of covid-19 virus reported by South Africa on November 24, as the highest level “worthy of attention”, Since then, many countries have taken prevention and control measures to restrict entry and seal off countries, increasing the uncertainty of the recovery of global demand and supply. On December 1, the organization for Economic Cooperation (OECD) released the latest global economic outlook report. In view of the newly discovered Omicron variant, the OECD believes that it may pose a threat to economic recovery and significantly increase the risk of uncertainty. At the same time, the OECD lowered its economic growth forecast for 2022. The trend of China’s exports is closely related to the evolution of the epidemic. In the short term, the impact of the epidemic continues, and exports may maintain a high growth trend in the short term. In the medium and long term, it is still necessary to observe the impact of the epidemic on global production capacity and supply chain. In the context of easing the tension in the supply chain and falling commodity prices, China may increase its inventory of related products, so imports may also maintain a high growth trend in the short term.
