event:
According to the preliminary statistics of the people's Bank of China, in November 2021, social finance increased by 2.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 474.5 billion yuan. As of November 2021, the stock of social finance was 311.90 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10.1%; In November 2021, RMB loans increased by 1.27 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 160 billion yuan; In November 2021, M0, M1 and M2 increased by + 7.2%, + 3.0% and + 8.5% year-on-year respectively, compared with the previous month by + 1.0pcts, + 0.2pcts and -0.2pcts respectively.
Core view:
In November, the social finance increment was 2.61 trillion yuan, lower than the market expectation of 2.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 474.5 billion yuan year-on-year. In November, the stock of social finance increased by + 10.1% year-on-year, with a slight increase over the previous month, and the credit is still at the bottom.
In November, corporate loans increased by 213.3 billion yuan less than that of last year, and the structure is still difficult to say ideal. Medium and long-term loans decreased by 247 billion yuan year-on-year, continuing the trend of continuous year-on-year decrease since July. At the same time, bill financing increased by only 80.1 billion yuan year-on-year in November, which did not "cover up" the year-on-year contraction of enterprise credit demand as during July to October. In terms of proportion, in November this year, medium and long-term corporate loans accounted for 60.2% of new corporate loans, compared with 75.4% and 61.9% in the same period in 2020 and 2019. Looking back: business services, wholesale and retail industries are facing the impact of the epidemic, and it will take time to improve financing demand; The probability that the real estate industry will become the main force of credit expansion again is small, but the industry financing is expected to gradually stabilize due to the conduction effect of policy marginal relaxation; The manufacturing industry has rebounded, and its financing demand is still an important supporting force for credit expansion in the short term.
In November, government bonds increased by 415.8 billion yuan year-on-year, and the acceleration effect of special bond issuance in the fourth quarter was obvious. Due to the base effect, there will be great pressure on steady growth next year, and the fiscal probability will start in the first quarter. The probability that the government will increase bond issuance to support economic development in the first half of next year is high, and government bond financing is expected to continue to provide support for social finance.
Due to the upward growth of M1 and the decline of M2, the m2-m1 scissors difference this month was 5.5%, narrower than 5.9% in October, the degree of currency demand has increased, and the marginal economic momentum has rebounded.
In December, the central bank lowered the reserve requirement, the steady growth is expected to continue, and the relevant debt financing is expected to continue to provide support for social finance and promote the stabilization of social finance. However, the subsequent rebound should also see the strength of credit, the improvement of structure, and the gradual large-scale medium and long-term loans of enterprises. At least at present, the total amount and structure of credit are still weak, which is expected to require further policy support and guidance. It is expected that social finance will only stabilize at this stage, and it will take some time to really strengthen.
