event:
On December 9, 2021, the National Bureau of statistics released China's inflation data in November:
CPI rose by 2.3% year-on-year and is expected to rise by 2.5%, with the previous value of 1.5% and a month on month ratio of 0.4%;
PPI rose by 12.9% year-on-year and is expected to rise by 12%, with the previous value of 13.5% and a month on month ratio of 0%;
Core CPI rose 1.2% year-on-year, down 0.1% from the previous month.
Viewpoint:
PPI began to decline, and CPI continued to rise under the pull of pig price. However, with the decline of pork price, CPI is expected to remain in a moderate range, with great downward pressure on the economy and weak domestic demand, making the core CPI continue to weaken. In the early stagflation situation, the pressure of "stagnation" increased, the factors of "inflation" gradually resolved, and the inflationary pressure weakened, which helped to continue the loose monetary policy after the RRR reduction on December 6. For the bond market, although the impact of inflation on the bond market has weakened under the low CPI this year, the dissipation of inflationary pressure still provides favorable factors for the bond market.
1、 The rise of pork, vegetables and fresh fruits contributed to the upward CPI, while the core CPI was still weak
In November, CPI continued to rise by 0.8% to 2.3% year-on-year, with a ring ratio of 0.4%, which narrowed compared with the previous month. Core CPI was 1.2% year-on-year and - 0.2% month on month. (1) CPI food items changed from negative to positive year-on-year to 1.6%, 2.4% month on month, and the month on month increase was 0.7%, including 12.2% month on month for pork price, 6.8% month on month for vegetable price, 4.3% month on month for fresh fruit price and 3% month on month for egg price. (2) CPI for non food items was 2.5% year-on-year, 0 month on month, and 0.4% month on month. Among them, the price of industrial consumer goods increased by 0.3% month on month, decreased by 0.6% month on month, the service price decreased by 0.3% month on month, and the transportation and communication items decreased by 6.7% month on month, 0.3% month on month, 7% month on month. On the whole, CPI rebounded for two consecutive months driven by pig prices. However, the growth rate of pig and sow stocks is relatively low at present The supply of seasonal vegetables and fresh fruits gradually kept up, and the impact of CPI food items decreased. In addition, due to the repeated disturbance of the epidemic, residents' service prices and transportation and communication prices fell sharply, and the core CPI is still weak. The CPI trend is expected to be moderate in the short term.
2、 PPI downlink channel is opened, and ppi-cpi scissors difference begins to converge
In November, the PPI decreased to 12.9% from 13.5% in the previous month, which opened the downward channel, but it was still in a high position, and the month on month ratio decreased to 0 from 2.5% in the previous month. Among them, the price of means of production rose by 17% year-on-year and narrowed by 0.9%. The rising situation of coal price has significantly improved under the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing price, while China's oil price is still high. However, the overseas crude oil price has dropped significantly and is expected to be gradually transmitted to China. The price of means of living rose by 1% year-on-year and expanded by 0.4% compared with that of last month. The price rise in the upstream is transmitted to the downstream, Prices in downstream consumer manufacturing and other industries continued to rise. After that, due to the significant easing of the supply and demand tension of upstream resource products and the tightening of overseas liquidity, the downward trend of PPI was highly deterministic, and the ppi-cpi scissors began to converge.
