matter:
On the evening of December 10, US CPI data were released. The CPI of the United States in November increased by 6.8% year-on-year, expected to be 6.8%, and the previous value was 6.2%; Core CPI increased by 4.9%, expected to increase by 4.9%, and the previous value increased by 4.6%.
Ping An View:
In November, the year-on-year growth rate of us CPI reached the highest since June 1982, and the core CPI was also the highest level in recent 30 years. After the CPI data was released, the US dollar index fell, and then weakened slightly in the shock. The US dollar index fell 0.12% to 96.09 in the late trading.
In terms of year-on-year breakdown, energy, transportation, food and housing are the leading factors driving the surge of CPI. Among them, the year-on-year increase of energy is more than 30%, and the year-on-year increase of transportation is more than 20%, showing a continuous upward trend. From the perspective of month on month sub items, the month on month growth rates of CPI, core CPI, energy, food and housing sub items are lower than those of the previous month, but they are still at a high level, indicating that the year-on-year growth rate of us CPI is still likely to rise in the future. Combined with the latest non farm employment, the inflation spiral driven by rising wages in the United States may be taking shape.
After the epidemic, high inflation in the United States was caused by a combination of demand, supply and inflation expectations. On the demand side, it mainly comes from the large-scale financial and monetary subsidies, which increase the total demand of the whole society; On the supply side, the supply chain interruption and the shortage of goods and labor markets caused by the epidemic have amplified the upward range and time span of inflation; In terms of inflation expectations, under the constraints of global carbon neutrality, the rapid rise in the price of traditional energy products has pushed up the overall inflation expectations.
What is the impact on the market? After the CPI data was released, the US dollar index fell slightly, the US stock indexes rose together, the interest rates of US bonds with different maturities changed little, and the gold price rose. On the whole, the market response is relatively flat, which may be mainly due to the fact that the US CPI data in November is more consistent with market expectations. For the dollar index, inflation mainly affects the trend by affecting the tightening rhythm of the Federal Reserve. At present, the market has full expectations for the upward trend of the US dollar index. When the US dollar approaches the 97 position, it reflects the market expectation that the Federal Reserve may accelerate the pace of taper and the probability of raising interest rates twice next year is more than 70%. Next, we need to pay attention to the statement of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in December and whether the forecast of economic growth and inflation will release more hawkish information. In the previous statement of the Federal Reserve, it believed that taper and interest rate hike are two completely different operations. If the interest rate meeting in December can not release more information about interest rate hike, the power of the dollar index to continue to rise sharply is insufficient, which is more likely to be a shock pattern.
For the RMB, although there are favorable supports such as high trade boom, strong demand for foreign exchange settlement and insufficient action on the US dollar in the short term, the people's Bank of China has raised the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio again, obviously releasing a signal to the outside world that it does not want the RMB to appreciate too fast, and the RMB is more likely to be a strong shock in the short term.
Risk tips: 1) the global covid-19 epidemic is heating up again; 2) The global macroeconomic recovery is less than expected; 3) The geopolitical environment has become more volatile
