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From December 8 to 10, 2021, the central economic work conference was held in Beijing.
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The focus of economic work next year is "stability first, seeking progress while stability". The economic growth target in 2022 may be set at about 5.5%. The focus of economic work in 2022 is closely related to the background of the convening of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in the second half of next year, as well as the current pressure on steady growth. In most years, the central economic work conference is held before and after December 20, but the central economic work conference in 2019 is held from December 10 to 12, and this year is from December 8 to 10. The meetings held earlier in the past two years show that it is urgent to stabilize growth. This year's central economic work conference proposed to "strive to stabilize the macro-economic market and keep the economic operation within a reasonable range". We believe that the decision-making level may set the economic growth target of about 5.5% in 2022. The growth rate of 5.5% can be achieved only with the support of policies, but consider the needs of ensuring employment and guiding stable expectations.
Next year's macro policy: moderately strengthen, while emphasizing the coordination and linkage of policies. It was mentioned at the meeting that "China's economic development is facing triple pressures of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectations". At present, China is facing an unprecedented complex situation and the economy is facing new downward pressure, which determines that policies should be appropriately strengthened, break through the past model and improve pertinence; Second, policies must be better coordinated and linked in order to give better play to the maximum effect of macro-control under the current complex economic situation. Therefore, macro policies emphasize the organic combination of cross cycle and counter cycle macro-control policies to ensure the sustainable operation of the economy in a reasonable range.
Fiscal policy next year: focus on sustainability and focus on steady growth, but the easing level is restrained. The degree of fiscal policy easing in 2022 should be higher than that in 2021. However, due to the estimated large amount of carry over surplus funds this year, although the fiscal policy in 2022 will continue the positive and loose policy orientation, it will be more restrained as a whole, so as to achieve the goal of "paying more attention to accuracy and sustainability". We expect that the overall scale of new government bonds in 2022 will be the same as that in 2021 (7017.6 billion yuan in 2021), at 7-7.05 trillion yuan; the scale of deficit bonds will rise slightly, but the deficit ratio will return to 3%; special bonds will be reduced, which is expected to be at 3.35 trillion yuan.
Real estate market supervision: properly relax but have boundaries to meet reasonable needs. "Stabilizing land prices, house prices and expectations" is still the current unshakable policy direction, which has built the boundary of real estate relaxation. On the premise of supporting the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable needs of buyers, the sales side policy is nearly relaxed, and the residential mortgage side loans are expected to continue to be relaxed. "Promoting the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry" is to correct the consistent contraction behavior of financial institutions in the early stage.
Risk statement
The recent epidemic has been repeated, the uncertain factors of global economic recovery still exist, China's economy is still in the process of recovery, and there are still many uncertainties in the follow-up.
