The development scale of China's green finance leads the world, but the gap of green investment demand is still large. In terms of the capital demand for the realization of the "30.60" goal, we have summarized the conclusions of 10 academic and commercial research institutions: the annual average capital demand of carbon peak is 1.42 trillion-7.7 trillion; The annual average capital demand of carbon neutralization is 1.8 trillion-3.9 trillion.
Academic institutions: on the one hand, the research group of "green financial reform and promoting green transformation" of Renmin University of China pointed out that from 2015 to 2030, the demand for medium-term plan was 70.1 trillion yuan; The total fund demand for high-level programmes is 123.4 trillion yuan, and the annual average fund demand is 4.4 trillion yuan / year and 7.7 trillion yuan respectively. According to the research of the price monitoring center of the national development and Reform Commission, China needs 3.1 trillion-3.6 trillion yuan per year to reach the carbon peak in 2030; CUFE Green Gold Institute believes that in order to achieve China's goal of "carbon peak" in 2030, the cumulative green investment demand since 2021 is conservatively estimated to be 14.2 trillion yuan, that is, the annual average demand is 1.42 trillion yuan. On the other hand, for the realization of the carbon neutralization target in 2060, most studies believe that the investment scale required for China to achieve the carbon neutralization target is more than 100 trillion yuan. The report on China's long-term low-carbon development strategy and transformation path released by the Institute of climate change and sustainable development of Tsinghua University points out that to achieve the goal oriented transformation path of 1.5 ℃, the cumulative new investment is about 138 trillion yuan, that is, the annual new investment is about 4.6 trillion yuan, and the annual investment exceeds 2.5% of GDP; Professor Chen Shiyi, director of the green finance research center of Fudan University, pointed out that the investment required for China to achieve carbon neutralization is about 68.63 trillion yuan, that is, the annual average investment required is 1.8 trillion yuan.
Business institutions: Sequoia China and Boston Consulting estimate that from 2021 to 2060, the annual gap of China's green investment is about 3.84 trillion yuan; China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) pointed out that about 140 trillion yuan of green investment is needed to achieve the goal of carbon neutralization, which is 3.9 trillion yuan a year; Goldman Sachs research pointed out that from 2020 to 2060, the investment scale of clean energy technology infrastructure will reach US $16 trillion, reaching US $0.4 trillion per year (6.5:1, equivalent to RMB 2.6 trillion).
Facing the huge green investment gap, China has made great efforts to promote the development of green finance and green finance. Green finance is mainly composed of green credit, green bonds, green insurance, green equity, green fund, etc. Green credit is the absolute main product of green finance. China's green credit scale ranks first in the world. The overall quality of green credit assets is good and the structure is more diversified. In September 2021, the balance of green loans of major financial institutions was 14.78 trillion yuan, an increase of 27.9% year-on-year. The enthusiasm of China's major banks to provide green credit has been increasing. The green bond system originated in 2015 and has become the second main force of green finance. The issuance scale has gradually increased and is in the process of continuous innovation. By the end of the first half of 2021, the cumulative issuance scale of green bonds at home and abroad in China has exceeded 1.73 trillion yuan. From the perspective of issuing subjects, it is mainly state-owned enterprises and high rating subjects. Compared with the first two tools, green equity is seriously underdeveloped. According to the data of the central bank, green equity accounts for 2% of green financing in 2020. Although the green stock index has made some achievements, the number is still small.
The effect of fiscal policy on green transformation is reflected through tax policy, government procurement and green government fund: the most important tax policy is the promulgation of environmental protection tax law and resource tax law; From 2018 to 2020, the issuance amount of special bonds on the theme of ecological and environmental protection was RMB 1.608 billion, RMB 59.211 billion and RMB 361.126 billion respectively. During the 13th Five Year Plan period, China's expenditure budget for energy conservation and environmental protection reached 2.99 trillion yuan. China's green government funds mainly include China's Clean Development Mechanism Fund and the national green development fund. At the same time, the improvement of government green procurement policy can play an exemplary role in green consumption. Production data: the price of thermal coal decreased by 10.5% compared with last week, the price of iron ore increased by 4.1%, and the price of rebar increased by 2.1%. Rebar futures inventory continued to digest, down 25.2% this week. The blast furnace operating rate this week was 46.7%, down 1.1 percentage points from last week. CRB commodities fell 0.8%, crude oil rose 6.1%, and copper and aluminum spot fell 0.2% and 1.1% respectively.
Demand: real estate demand, land supply and transaction data decreased compared with the same period last month. The real estate transaction area of 30 large and medium-sized cities (12.04-12.10) decreased by 2.9% year-on-year and 29.2% year-on-year. The two-week data of land supply area of 100 large and medium-sized cities (11.22-12.05) decreased by 25.3% year-on-year and 21.5% year-on-year. The land transaction area of 100 large and medium-sized cities (11.22-12.05) decreased by 2% over the same period last month and 60.9% over the same period last year. The land transaction premium rate (11.29-11.05) was 2.3%, down 1.1 percentage points over last week.
Food prices: food prices generally fell this week. The prices of pork and fruit fell by 0.1% and 0.4% respectively compared with last week, and the prices of eggs and vegetables fell by a large margin, 1.8% and 4.2% respectively. The Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale price 200 index fell 1% from last week. Monthly, the average price of pork was 24.6 yuan in December and 24 yuan in November, up 2.5% month on month. The average price of eggs was 10.2 yuan in December and 10.6 yuan in November, down 3.8% month on month. The average price of vegetables was 5.4 yuan in December and 5.7 yuan in November, down 5.3% month on month. The average price of fruit was 6.1 yuan in December and 6 yuan in November, up 1.7% month on month. The average value of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale price 200 index was 128.2 in December and 129.8 in November, down 1.2% month on month.
Liquidity: this Monday, The people's Bank of China decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points on December 15, 2021 (excluding financial institutions that have implemented the 5% deposit reserve ratio), after this reduction, the weighted average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions is 8.4%, which is expected to release 120 billion liquidity. We are concerned about the renewal of 950 billion MLF due on the 15th of this week. Omo invested 50 billion yuan this week, 230 billion yuan due, and a net investment of - 180 billion yuan this week. The interest rate of one-year AAA interbank deposit certificate closed at 2.6% 8%, down 3bp from last week. The difference between dr007 and 7-day reverse repo rate this week was the lowest on December 6, 1.3bp lower than the latter, and the highest on December 9, 19.5bp higher than the latter, 9.7bp higher on average than the 7-day reverse repo rate. The interest rates of 1-year AAA certificates of deposit are lower than that of 1-year MLF, with a minimum difference of 26.3bp, a maximum of 26.9bp and an average decrease of 26.7bp. The short-term (one-year) and long-term (10-year) treasury bond yields were flat compared with last week, closing at 2.32% and 2.9% respectively. Dr007 fell 1bp to close at 2.16% compared with last week. This week, Shanghai stock market rose 1.55% and gem fell 1.68%.
