The word "stability" comes first at the central economic work conference. The annual central economic work conference was held in Beijing from December 8 to 10. The meeting pointed out the direction of China's economy in 2022 and made systematic deployment. The meeting demanded that next year's economic work should take the lead and seek progress while maintaining stability. Compared with last year's "seeking progress while maintaining stability", this time there are four more words: "stability first". This "stability" not only refers to stabilizing the economy, but also refers to steady progress in promoting common prosperity and carbon neutralization and carbon peak.
Economic pressure, policy response. According to the analysis of the meeting, China's economic development is facing triple pressures of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectation. "Triple pressure" is a relatively rare formulation. It should be said that it is an objective, rational and accurate judgment of the central government on the economic situation. The meeting focused on these possible problems from seven policy aspects. Under the impact of the epidemic in the 21st century, the changes in the century have accelerated, and the external environment has become more complex, severe and uncertain. China's economy will face greater pressure next year. The government has made clear policy responses from seven aspects: macro, micro and structure. The government has also expressed a clearer attitude towards topics of great concern, such as common prosperity, capital supervision and carbon neutralization.
We will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. The world economy is expected to slow down next year, external demand will shrink, and domestic demand will be relatively weak under the downward impact of the real estate cycle. In the face of "demand contraction", it is also an inevitable choice to emphasize that macro policies should be stable and effective based on the changes of the international situation in China. The formulation of active fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy has not changed, but active fiscal policy should improve efficiency and pay more attention to accuracy and sustainability. We should ensure the intensity of fiscal expenditure, implement a new policy of tax reduction and fee reduction, and moderately advance infrastructure investment. At the same time, we will strictly enforce financial discipline and resolutely curb the new implicit debts of local governments. Prudent monetary policy should be flexible and appropriate, and maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity. Overall, while stabilizing the economy, we will still pay attention to the stability, rationality and moderation of policies.
It requires a more accurate understanding of common prosperity and capital supervision. For common prosperity and capital regulation, there have been misunderstandings or misunderstandings in the market in the past few years. In this economic work conference, the government specially made a clearer explanation and guidance. To achieve the goal of common prosperity, we must first make the "cake" bigger and better through the common struggle of the people of the whole country, and then cut and divide the "cake" through reasonable institutional arrangements, so as to improve the employment driving force of economic growth in high-quality development. This is a long-term historical process and we can't be eager for success. For capital supervision, we should correctly understand and grasp the characteristics and behavior laws of capital, not only develop its strengths, but also restrain its weaknesses. We should give play to the positive role of capital as a factor of production, support and guide the standardized and healthy development of capital, and effectively control its negative role. We should set up a "traffic light" for capital, strengthen the effective supervision of capital according to law, and prevent the barbaric growth of capital.
When carbon reaches the peak, carbon neutralization should also make progress while maintaining stability. Since this year, governments at all levels have put forward the goal of "carbon peaking and carbon neutralization", which is far ahead of the central goal. In practical work, there have been problems such as "carbon charging" and "moving carbon reduction". The implementation is too simple and rough, resulting in a series of problems such as lack of coal and power. The central government has proposed that "carbon peaking and carbon neutralization" is not a short-term process, You can't "force too hard" and you can't finish it in one battle. Achieving carbon peak and carbon neutralization is a complex project and long-term task. We should be firm in our goals and strive for progress while maintaining stability in strategy. We should fully consider China's basic national conditions such as energy structure and industrial structure, and make an overall plan without affecting the overall situation of economic and social development.
Risk tips: interest rate fluctuates more than expected, overseas market fluctuates more than expected, economic growth is less than expected, enterprise performance does not meet expectations, other systemic risks, etc.
