Macro environment review
1.1 the toxicity of Omicron strain is low
As of December 10, 269 million cases of covid-19 had been confirmed worldwide, and the overall infection rate reached 3.45%; The total number of deaths was 5.3 million, and the mortality decreased slightly to 1.97%. Since the end of 2019, there have been five rounds of covid-19 epidemic in the world. The first round is from the end of 2019 to September 2020, and covid-19 epidemic has gradually spread from East Asia to the world; In the second round, from October 2020 to mid February 2021, the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States has seriously deteriorated due to unfavorable social customs and prevention and control; In the third round, from late February to mid June 2021, the virus mutation and traditional festivals led to the outbreak of the epidemic in India, and the epidemic in Europe and America was controlled with the help of vaccination; In the fourth round, from late June to early October, the delta strain with strong infectivity and immune escape characteristics first found in India spread to the United States, Europe and Asia; The fifth round began in mid October, mainly in Europe and the United States to relax preventive measures after vaccination, while the newly discovered Omicron strain in South Africa has stronger infectivity. Facing the threat of Omicron, many countries have restricted international aviation with southern Africa, but recent data show that the toxicity of Omicron strain is relatively low. As of December 10, Countries and regions with more than 10000 new confirmed cases per day include the United States (North America, 118173), the United Kingdom (Western Europe, 48891), Germany (Central Europe, 47776), France (Western Europe, 40342), Russia (Eastern Europe, 31520), Poland (Eastern Europe, 23083), Turkey (Middle East, 20226), the Netherlands (Central Europe, 20033) and Italy (southern Europe, 15404), Belgium (Western Europe, 14996) and Spain (southern Europe, 12462).
As of December 10, 8.41 billion doses of covid-19 vaccine had been vaccinated worldwide, The daily average number of vaccinations (7-day moving average) was 34.49 million, and the number of people who had received at least one vaccine reached 4.4 billion; the top economies in vaccination volume were China (2.59 billion doses), India (1.31 billion doses), the United States (480 million doses), Brazil (320 million doses) and Indonesia (247 million doses); the global vaccination rate reached 55.9%, including Portugal (89%) China (85%), South Korea (84%), Spain (84%) and Canada (82%) were at the forefront. At present, the overall vaccination rate of developed economies in Europe, America, Japan and South Korea has reached 75%, which has reached the level of mass immunization. European countries such as Britain and Norway have successively liberalized epidemic prevention measures. Due to vaccine availability and financial factors, it is expected that developing countries as a whole will not reach the level of mass immunization until the first half of 2022. From the data point of view, due to the re tightening of epidemic prevention measures and acceleration of vaccination in Europe and the United States after the deterioration of the epidemic situation, after the discovery of Omicron strain in South Africa, many countries limited international aviation with southern Africa. The epidemic spread rate in Europe and the United States shows signs of peaking, but it is still necessary to be vigilant against the impact of Festival effect at the end of the year. Although the infectivity of Omicron is very strong, the existing covid-19 vaccine does not have 100% immune escape ability, and the toxicity of Omicron is low, and the harm to human body after infection is low. Therefore, the market’s concern about Omicron is gradually reduced.
Inflation pressures at home and abroad tend to rise
Affected by seasonal factors, rising costs and epidemic outbreaks, China’s CPI rose by 0.4% month on month in November 2021, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; It rose 2.3% year-on-year, 0.8 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. Food prices rose by 2.4% month on month, an increase of 0.7 percentage points over the previous month, affecting the CPI rise by about 0.43 percentage points; Among them, due to the seasonal growth of consumer demand and the tight supply of short-term fat pigs, the pork price has changed from continuous decline to increase by 12.2%; All localities take multiple measures to ensure the supply of “vegetable baskets”,
With the gradual increase in the number of vegetables on the market, the price increase of fresh vegetables fell sharply by 9.8 percentage points over the previous month. Non food prices rose from 0.4% last month to flat, of which the price of industrial consumer goods rose by 0.3%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month; The service price increased by 0.1% from the previous month to decreased by 0.3%. Affected by the reduction of travel after the festival and the spread of the epidemic, the prices of air tickets, travel agency fees and hotel accommodation decreased by 14.8%, 3.8% and 3.7% respectively. With the increasing implementation of the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, the rapid rise in the prices of energy and raw materials such as coal and metals has been initially curbed. In November 2021, China’s PPI was flat month on month, up 12.9% year-on-year. However, the high fluctuation of international crude oil and natural gas prices led to the rise of prices in relevant industries in China. The price of oil exploitation increased by 7.1%, the manufacturing price of refined petroleum products increased by 4.7%, and the price of chemical manufacturing industry increased by 0.7%.
