In November, although the US CPI continued to reach a new high, it basically met the market expectations. After the quarterly adjustment, the CPI increased by 0.8% month on month, higher than the market expectation of 0.7%, lower than the previous value of 0.g%; Not seasonally adjusted, up to 6.8% year-on-year, in line with the expected 6.8%; Core CPI increased by 0.5% month on month, in line with the expected 0.5% and the previous value was 0.6%. From the perspective of sub items, except for the decline in the month on month growth rate of entertainment CPI, other sub items recorded a large increase, especially energy goods and services. The month on month growth rate of energy commodities was as high as 5.5% G%, the month on month growth rate of energy services was only 0.3%, and the high gasoline price led to the significant upward promotion of CPI by energy sub items. Commodities excluding energy and food grew by 0.4% month on month, and core services recorded 0.4%. On the whole, the sharp rise in CPI in January was mainly caused by the rise in energy prices. Excluding food, energy, shelters and second-hand cars, the month on month growth rate of CPI slowed down, and the month on month growth rate of service CPI excluding energy services was basically flat. The rapid rise in fuel oil prices led to a rapid rise in the prices of energy, energy services and air tickets, but entertainment services recorded a negative growth month on month, and new mutated viruses dragged down the recovery of services. Recently, crude oil prices have fallen sharply. At the same time, the new mutant virus has caused more mild diseases and the panic has eased. In the follow-up, we believe that inflation will shift from energy to services, and high inflation will continue for some time.
From the perspective of sub items, the month on month growth rate of energy prices rose rapidly, especially the rapid rise of gasoline prices, resulting in the rapid rise of overall energy prices, including goods and services, and the month on month growth rate of food prices fell to 0.7%. Among the other sub items, the growth rate started to rebound, only clothing and transportation; Driven by the rise of energy prices, the growth rate of transportation prices continued to rebound, recording a high growth of 2.5%. Due to the change of the epidemic situation, the service industry was frustrated again, the price growth slowed down or even went down, and the price of entertainment items increased negatively month on month, only. 0.2%, prices fell
The faster ones are information technology and personal computer. We believe that the consumption of durable goods represented by computers continues to decline, the price of durable goods may gradually decline, there is still a large gap in entertainment services, and subsequent inflation will gradually penetrate into entertainment services.
In terms of energy, although crude oil prices fell from a high level this month, the prices of energy commodities rose rapidly. The high price of energy commodities in the early stage is the main reason for the rise of CPI, which also drives the rise of the price of energy services. However, in January and February, the price of crude oil stabilized and rebounded, basically maintained in the range of 60-70, and the price of natural gas continued to decline. In the early stage, the sharp rise in price driven by the shortage of natural gas and the increase of heating demand seems to have come to an end. It is expected that with the stabilization of energy prices, the month on month growth of energy CPI in January and February will further slow down. In the core commodity CPI, the price of second-hand cars, which led to the sustained and rapid rise of inflation in the early stage, continued to grow rapidly, recording 2.5% The high growth rate of 5%. From the perspective of the used car market, the decline of the price of the used car market in the early stage leads us to believe that the market is gradually becoming saturated, but the rapid rebound of the price may mean that the demand for used cars still has growth potential. The continuous rise of new car prices confirms that the tight chip supply situation may be more severe than expected by the market, but the subsequent chip supply bottleneck may be alleviated next year, and the pressure of further rapid inflation may slow down gradually. Excluding energy services, the month on month growth rate of service prices was 0.5% 5%, unchanged from the previous value, and the prices of the three major sub items continued to rise. Transportation services were affected by the sharp rise in energy prices, with a month on month growth rate of 0.5% 7%, further rapid rise. Generally speaking, the itemized prices (such as hotel accommodation, air tickets, etc.) that dragged down the core CPI in the early stage began to rebound, and the subsequent inflationary pressure may change from local (energy) to comprehensive and extensive (services).
