Macro interpretation of the central economic work conference
The central economic work conference was held in Beijing from December 8 to 10. Xi Jinping deliver an important speech at the meeting, summarize the economic work in 2021, analyze the current economic situation and deploy the economic work in 2022. In his speech, Li Keqiang made specific arrangements for next year's economic work and made a concluding speech.
The meeting first affirmed that this year's calm response to the changes in the century and the epidemic situation in the century has achieved a good start in the 14th five year plan. But at the same time, it is pointed out that China's economic development is facing the triple pressure of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectation. Demand contraction mainly refers to weak domestic demand. On the one hand, the sluggish real estate investment and infrastructure investment led to the slowdown of overall investment growth (chart 1). From July to October this year, the overall investment, real estate investment and infrastructure investment fell by 0.1%, 1.8% and 6.6% respectively. On the other hand, the overall consumption was depressed due to the epidemic and the slowdown of residents' income (chart 2), the growth rate of retail sales from July to October was only 5.1%. Supply shock refers to the shortage of bulk commodity supply under the impact of the global epidemic, resulting in high PPI in China and rising operating costs of small and medium-sized enterprises and middle and downstream enterprises. In addition, in the transformation from traditional energy to new energy, due to policy misunderstandings, there is a phased shortage of supply. The weakening of expectation refers to the market main body's demand for the economy next year Current pessimism may affect residents' consumption intention and enterprises' investment intention
