On December 11, 2021 Beijing time, the U.S. Department of labor released data. In November, the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose 6.8% year-on-year, the highest level since 1982, which aroused widespread concern in the market.
First, the continuous rise of CPI is in line with expectations, and the rise of energy is the main driving force. Recently, inflationary pressure in the United States has intensified, and CPI growth has continued to set a new record. In October, the US CPI rose 6.2% year-on-year, breaking 6% for the first time in more than 30 years; In November, US CPI continued to rise by 6.8% year-on-year, the highest level in 40 years; Core CPI rose 4.9% year-on-year, far exceeding the target level of 2%, the highest level since June 1991. US inflation and cost of living continued to rise, and CPI rose 0.5% month on month, basically in line with market expectations and did not trigger large-scale market fluctuations and adjustments. From the perspective of sub indicators, the rise in energy prices is the main reason, rising 33.3% year-on-year in November, and driving the year-on-year increase of transportation prices by 21.1%.
Second, the argument that inflation is "temporary" has been refuted, and the structural rise of CPI is turning to an all-round rise. Although the CPI in November did not reflect the positive momentum of the recent decline in energy prices, and the month on month increase in energy prices has decreased from 2.9% in October to 1.5%, the rising trend of other sub indicators deserves attention. In November, US food prices rose 6.1% year-on-year, the highest level since October 2008; Housing prices rose 4.8% year-on-year, the highest level since January 2001. It can be seen that the driving force of inflation has shifted from a few industries hardest hit by the epidemic to a wider range. Even if the price increases of energy and used cars have subsided, the factors such as supply chain disturbance, insufficient labor supply structure and rising total demand are superimposed to maintain the inflation index at a relatively high level. Recently, Fed chairman Powell changed his previous view of "temporary" inflation, and Fed officials and market institutions have responded to or updated inflation forecasts.
