event
At the end of November, the balance of broad money (M2) was 235.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%; At the end of the month, the balance of RMB loans was 191.56 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%. At the end of November, the stock of social financing scale was 311.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%. In November, the increment of social financing scale was 2.61 trillion yuan.
Main points
Since 2021, although the overall financial data is at a low level, the marginal steady state appears in the second half of the year, which is mainly driven by the wide currency + wide credit policy, mainly including the RRR reduction in July, the correction of the real estate market since September, and the continuous development of refinancing and rediscount policies. However, when the epidemic environment is still severe and complex and the marginal of total demand slows down, the policy stimulus effect of a certain degree is bound to decline gradually. However, a new round of steady growth policy has emerged. On December 6, the central bank announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement and a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the refinancing interest rate for supporting agriculture and small businesses; On July 7, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee made a preliminary deployment for the economic work in 2022, stressed the importance of stability and seeking progress in stability, and proposed to promote the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate industry. On the 10th, the central economic work conference further determined the tone of steady growth, emphasizing the organic combination of cross cyclical regulation and counter cyclical regulation. With the support of a series of policies, it is expected that social finance will continue to stabilize, but the obvious recovery needs a certain opportunity, which also depends on the specific strength of future policies.
