From December 8 to 10, the central economic work conference was held in Beijing. The conference summarized the economic work in 2021, analyzed the current economic situation and deployed the economic work in 2022. The meeting pointed out for the first time that the "triple pressures" facing China's economic development are demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectations. It stressed that the general tone of next year's economic work is "maintaining stability and seeking progress while maintaining stability". In view of the "triple pressures", it put forward "seven policies" and "five understandings". It will continue to do a good job in "six stabilities" and "six guarantees" and increase support for the real economy, Prevent and resolve major risks.
First, macro policies emphasize the word "stability".
Active fiscal policy should play a greater role in expanding demand and stabilizing growth. The meeting stressed that active fiscal policies should improve efficiency and pay more attention to accuracy and sustainability. With the weakening of the impact of the epidemic on the economy, it is expected that the budget deficit ratio will return to the normal level of about 3% in 2022, which will help to enhance the sustainability of fiscal policy. Due to the expansion of economic scale and tax base, the scale of fiscal expenditure will be steadily increased, the progress of fiscal expenditure will be significantly accelerated, and the active fiscal policy will have sufficient capital guarantee. The meeting stressed the need to carry out infrastructure investment in an appropriate and advanced manner. It is expected that a large number of key construction projects in the 14th five year plan will be implemented in a centralized manner. In particular, investment in new infrastructure will be increased, including infrastructure construction such as energy conservation and environmental protection, intercity transportation, digital economy, new energy and new materials, so as to promote carbon peak and carbon neutralization in a scientific and orderly manner and promote high-quality economic and social development. It is expected that a new round of tax reduction and fee reduction policies will be implemented in the future, focusing on reducing the tax burden of small, medium-sized and micro enterprises, individual industrial and commercial households and manufacturing industry, and improving the endogenous growth momentum of microeconomic entities.
The flexibility, moderation and structural characteristics of prudent monetary policy have become more prominent. On the one hand, the steady orientation of monetary policy has not changed. At the same time, it emphasizes "flexibility and moderation". The flexibility and moderation is reflected in the timely reduction of reserve requirements and the reduction of small refinancing interest rate for agricultural support; On the other hand, the structural characteristics of monetary policy have not changed, and we still emphasize increasing support for "small and micro enterprises, scientific and technological innovation and green development". It is estimated that in 2022, there is still room for loose adjustment of monetary policy under the sound tone, and daily operations such as RRR reduction, MLF and Omo will be comprehensively utilized to maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity. At the same time, it is expected to make more use of structural tools to provide accurate guidance for key areas and weak links supporting the real economy. This includes not only structural incremental tools such as small refinancing, special refinancing for clean and efficient utilization of coal, carbon emission reduction support tools, but also structural price tools such as structural preferential interest rate and differential deposit reserve ratio.
In addition, it also emphasizes the interaction and coordination between policies. The meeting put forward the "coordination and linkage" of fiscal policy and monetary policy, and stressed the organic combination of "cross cycle" and "counter cycle" macro-control policies, which is a new formulation and requirement for the effective implementation of macro policies.
