Key points:
event:
In November, the scale of social financing increased by 2610 billion yuan, an increase of 474.5 billion yuan year-on-year, an increase of 1020.1 billion yuan compared with the previous value of 1589.9 billion yuan. The balance of social finance increased by 10.1% year-on-year, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous value. In November, the growth rate of M2 recorded 8.5%, 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous value, and the growth rate of M1 increased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.0% from 2.8% of the previous value.
The growth rate of social finance stabilized and rebounded, mainly due to RMB loans, bonds and special bonds
In November, the new social finance increased significantly month on month, mainly because RMB loans, corporate bond financing and local government special bonds increased significantly compared with the previous value. From a year-on-year perspective, the latter two still have a significant increase over the same period last year. Although the former was lower than that in the same period last year, there was an impact of accelerated loan lending after the epidemic was gradually controlled at the end of last year. Generally speaking, RMB loans in November were still higher than the average level of 1213.8 billion in the same period five years before the epidemic. Non standard financing was still a drag, and the decline of trust loans increased month on month.
Marginal adjustment of real estate industry, medium and long-term loan growth of households
In November, RMB loans increased by 1300 billion, an increase of 524.8 billion and a decrease of 230.9 billion respectively over the previous value and the same period last year. This year, due to the weakening of downstream demand and strict supervision of the real estate industry, credit demand fluctuated and fell. Structurally, in November, residents' medium and long-term loans were the main part of new credit, accounting for 45.6%, higher than the level of about 35% before the epidemic, which may be mainly related to the marginal adjustment of regulatory policies in the real estate industry in the short term, the real estate enterprises facing liquidity difficulties and accelerating sales collection. Although the medium and long-term loans of enterprises have rebounded from the previous value, they are still lower than the level before the epidemic, indicating that the downstream demand is still weak.
The m2-m1 scissors gap narrowed and the policy is expected to be further relaxed
In November, the growth rate of M2 recorded 8.5%, which was 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous value. The growth rate of M1 rose 0.2 percentage points to 3.0% from 2.8% of the previous value. The difference between the growth rates of M2 and M1 narrowed for the first time since April this year. As the economic growth is high before and low after this year, and the economic growth has continued to decline since the second half of the year, the repeated epidemic has increased the uncertainty of enterprise operation, and enterprises tend to reduce current funds. On the other hand, the continued weakness of commercial housing sales data this year is also an important reason for the m2-m1 scissors difference. However, these two factors have changed recently, and m2-m1 is expected to narrow further.
Risk statement
Inflation exceeded expectations, the economic downturn exceeded expectations, and the policy was less than expected
