Strict regulatory policies have slowed the margin, superimposed the centralized issuance of special bonds, and promoted the bottom building and stabilization of social finance. In November, social finance increased by 2.61 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.02 trillion yuan over the previous month and 474.5 billion yuan over the same period last year. The stock of social finance increased by 10.1% year-on-year, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points over the previous month. By category, the new on balance sheet financing was 1.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 514.7 billion yuan over the previous month, but an increase of 1996 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Under strict supervision, off balance sheet financing decreased by 253.8 billion yuan, 41.8 billion yuan more than last month and 49.5 billion yuan more than the same period last year. New direct financing increased by 252.2 billion yuan to 539.8 billion yuan over the previous month, an increase of 378.7 billion yuan over the same period last year. The improvement of new direct financing is mainly related to the easing of the weakening trend of the net financing amount of urban investment and real estate bonds: the net financing amount of real estate bonds has changed from negative to positive, and the net financing amount of urban investment bonds is as high as 237.1 billion yuan, an increase of 183.9 billion yuan over the previous month. The issuance scale of local government special bonds maintained a high level, and the government bond financing increased by 1991 billion yuan to 815.8 billion yuan over the previous month, an increase of 415.8 billion yuan over the same period of the whole year. Overall, the marginal adjustment of policy led to the stabilization of the bottom of new social finance in November.
Non bank deposits decreased significantly year-on-year, dragging down M2 growth, and the scissors difference between M1 and M2 narrowed slightly. In November, M2 increased by 8.5% year-on-year, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The deposits of the three major departments have been differentiated, and the new deposits of the resident departments have improved, an increase of 97.4 billion yuan to 730.8 billion yuan over the same period last year; New corporate deposits increased by 96.8 billion yuan to 945.1 billion yuan over the same period last year, and non bank deposits decreased by 877.3 billion yuan to - 25.7 billion yuan over the same period last year, which may be the main factor hindering the slowdown of M2 growth. A large number of local government bond funds issued in the early stage may be put into use one after another, and the Financial deposits decreased by 542.4 billion yuan to - 728.1 billion yuan compared with the same period last year. The release of Financial deposits may be the reason for the rise of enterprise deposits. The year-on-year growth of M1 rebounded by 0.2 percentage points to 3%, the m2-m1 scissors gap narrowed, but remained at a high level, and the activity of the real economy was still relatively low.
The downturn in real estate transactions has eased, the medium and long-term loans of residents have continued to improve, and the loans of enterprises have continued to slump. In November, RMB loans increased by 1.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 443.8 billion yuan over the previous month, but an increase of 160 billion yuan less than the same period last year. In terms of sub sectors, the new loans to households were 733.8 billion yuan, an increase of 269.1 billion yuan over the previous month and 19.7 billion yuan less than the same period; Among them, short-term loans increased by 151.7 billion yuan, an increase of 109.1 billion yuan over the previous month and a decrease of 96.9 billion yuan over the same period last year: the weakening of residents' short-term loans may be related to the pre consumption of "double 11" and the lower than expected consumption. Residents' medium - and long-term loans increased by 582.1 billion yuan, an increase of 160 billion yuan over the previous month and 77.2 billion yuan over the same period last year; The downturn in residents' medium and long-term loans has eased, and the reasonable capital demand for personal housing under the guidance of policies has been guaranteed. New loans from non-financial companies and other departments were 567.9 billion yuan, an increase of 257.8 billion yuan over the previous month and 213.3 billion yuan less than the same period last year; Short term loans to non-financial companies and other departments increased by 41 billion yuan, an increase of 69.8 billion yuan over the previous month and a decrease of 32.4 billion yuan over the same period last year. Medium and long-term loans to non-financial companies and other departments increased by 341.7 billion yuan, an increase of 122.7 billion yuan over the previous month and 247 billion yuan less than the same period last year; The new bill financing was 160.5 billion yuan, an increase of 44.5 billion yuan over the previous month and 80.1 billion yuan over the same period last year. In November, under the background of relatively weak financing demand of the real economy, the improvement of corporate loans was less than expected, and the structure was still further deteriorated. In particular, the continuous improvement of bill financing showed that corporate behavior remained conservative.
The wide credit signal continues to be released, and social finance may stabilize. On December 3, when meeting with the president of the International Monetary Fund, Premier Li Keqiang proposed to formulate policies around the needs of market players and reduce reserve requirements in due time. Subsequently, the central bank announced on the 6th that it decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points on December 15, releasing a total of about 1.2 trillion yuan of long-term funds. The RRR reduction released a total of 1.2 trillion funds. However, considering that 950 billion MLF expired in December, the incremental funds that can be released are about 250 billion, of which some funds are used to supplement long-term capital. Therefore, the RRR reduction does not mean that monetary policy is fully relaxed. However, RRR reduction means the release of the signal of wide credit policy. At the same time, with the marginal relaxation of strict regulatory policies for urban investment and real estate, real estate financing may stabilize at the bottom. Under the background of fiscal postposition during the year and fiscal preposition at the beginning of next year, fiscal support for infrastructure may be significant. In this context, the slowdown in the growth of subsequent new social finance may be alleviated. On November 19, the central bank issued the report on the implementation of monetary policy in the third quarter of 2021. The report pointed out that the monetary policy will still focus on China, with stability at the head, and the focus may be inclined to steady growth. The December Politburo meeting also reflected in advance that the central economic work conference at the end of the year may further clarify to strengthen cross cycle regulation to ensure that the economic operation stabilizes as soon as possible. Under the background of relatively low financing demand and low investment willingness of enterprises, precision drip irrigation policies may be introduced in the future to stabilize market expectations and alleviate the current trend of continuous deterioration of credit structure.
