Macro categories:
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting will be held at 3 a.m. Beijing time on December 16. We expect the Federal Reserve to end bond purchase in March 2022 in advance. However, combined with the performance that inflation expectations peaked and fell after the U.S. market began pricing, it is expected that the impact of ending bond purchase in advance is limited. In addition, imported cases of covid-19o variant have occurred in Guangzhou and Tianjin, China, and the follow-up epidemic risk can not be ignored.
In terms of Chinese commodities, personal housing loans increased by 401.3 billion yuan in November, an increase of 53.2 billion yuan over October. In addition, the high-frequency real estate sales data have improved since December, and the changes at the investment side still need to be tracked in the future. The recent central economic work conference continued to mention “no speculation in housing”. In addition, it also mentioned “moderately ahead of infrastructure investment”. We expect infrastructure investment to be strong in the first half of next year, but it is still difficult to significantly improve the real estate market throughout the year. Recently, with the gradual realization of the steady growth expectation, we should be vigilant against the risk of increasing the fluctuation of domestic demand industrial products under the steady growth expectation and the realistic game of pressure.
Overseas, the impact of O variant has been basically digested. At present, the vaccine is still effective for O variant, and the lethal rate of this variant is lower than Delta, showing more mild and mild symptoms. However, it should also be pointed out that the current high transmission rate of O variant is constantly reflected, and the confirmed cases in major o variant transmission areas such as South Africa and Europe are continuously reaching a new high. This week, we need to pay attention to the interest rate decisions of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank on December 16.
Strategy (order of strength): the three major stock indexes (IH / if / IC) are bargain hunting and multi matching; commodities are neutral, of which Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) can still bargain hunting and multi matching; treasury bonds are neutral;
Risk point: geopolitical risk; Global epidemic risk; Deterioration of Sino US relations; The situation in the Taiwan Strait.
