1、 Last week’s economic and market review:
On Friday, the emergence of the South African mutant virus had a huge impact on the prices of various assets, the risk assets generally fell sharply, and the safe haven assets rose. Boosted by the relaxation of China’s real estate credit, the black industry chain rose last week.
China’s top five commodity prices: iron ore 7.59%, coking coal 7.14%, urea 6.76%, pulp 5.61%, glass 3.87%; Styrene – 7.09%, LPG – 5.71%, soda ash – 5.48%, palm – 5.30%, Huyin – 4.11%
The top five (100 million yuan) of precipitation capital inflow and outflow: Shanghai nickel 7.30, hot coil 4.74, Zheng cotton 2.19, pulp 1.80 and thread 1.66; Hujin -7.57, palm -6.67, hualuminum -4.04, Huyin -3.96, iron ore -2.57
Inflow and outflow of precipitation funds from the sector (RMB 100 million): nonferrous metals 16.60, black building materials 3.91, precious metals -11.53, energy and chemical industry -11.97, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) – 14.57
2、 This week focuses on:
On November 25, South Africa announced the discovery of a new mutant virus Omicron, which aroused global concern.
First, it is relatively certain that Omicron mutant virus spreads very fast. In the last 10 days, the number of newly confirmed cases in South Africa has rapidly increased from 200-300 to 2000-3000, an increase of nearly 10 times. When delta mutant virus began to spread in South Africa in May this year, the number of newly confirmed cases per day only doubled in 10 days. Weiland, a famous disease modeling scientist, estimated that the infectivity of Omicron mutant virus was 500% higher than that of the original strain; The infectivity of delta variant virus was 70% – 200% higher than that of the original strain. Second, Omicron virus has a large number of mutation sites, which may have stronger immune escape characteristics. However, Omicron virus is not a new subtype, and the existing vaccine is expected to have a certain protective effect. The epidemic prevention effect of the vaccine on Omicron virus remains to be further studied. Third, short-term market risk appetite will still be restrained. Considering that the technical means and institutional mechanisms for the global response to the mutant virus are relatively mature, it is expected that Omicron virus will not lead to the global epidemic out of control in the medium and long term.
Risk tip: China’s policy
