Power equipment and new energy (CITIC level I) rose 0.76% this week, 1.37 percentage points ahead of the market. In terms of overall market performance, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.10%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 0.61%, and the gem index rose 1.46%. Among the sub sectors of power equipment, electrical equipment rose 2.01%, wind power fell 4.01% and photovoltaic fell 4.70%. In addition, new energy vehicles (CSI) rose 3.97%, 4.59 percentage points ahead of the market; New energy power generation operation (Yangtze River) fell 0.22%, leading the market by 0.39 percentage points.
This week, SW utilities (level I) rose 0.34%, outperforming the market by 0.95 percentage points. Among the utilities sub sectors, SW power fell 0.95%, SW environmental protection projects and services rose 4.03% (outperforming the market by 4.65 percentage points), SW gas rose 1.01%, and SW water rose 1.72% (outperforming the market by 2.33 percentage points).
Investment perspective:
Key targets:
Recommended Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) , Fujian Nebula Electronics.Ltd(300648) , Shenzhen Sinexcel Electric Co.Ltd(300693) ; Focus on Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Jiangyin Hengrun Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(603985) , Cybrid Technologies Inc(603212) , Arctech Solar Holding Co.Ltd(688408) , Zhejiang Xcc Group Co.Ltd;(603667) , Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) , Hangzhou Sunrise Technology Co.Ltd(300360) .
Electric vehicles and lithium batteries:
(1) According to the current production expansion, it is expected that the supply of battery materials will be released in 22 years, the pressure on battery cost will be relieved, the battery enterprises will make positive progress towards downstream favorable price, and the profits of battery enterprises are expected to be upward in 22 years; looking forward to 23 years, the growth rate of installed capacity of battery links will be flat or even accelerated month on month, and the links with significant barriers will have more long-term growth capacity and the trend of pattern optimization. Pay attention to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) 、 Byd Company Limited(002594) 、 Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) 、 Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) 、 Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) 。
(2) On November 19, the US House of Representatives passed a $1.75 trillion stimulus bill The bill will be submitted to the Senate for consideration within a few weeks. Among them, the incentives for electric vehicles include: a tax credit of $7500 for the purchase of electric vehicles; an additional tax credit of $500 if the battery is produced in the United States; and an additional tax credit of $4500 if it is a U.S. trade union enterprise There is huge room to improve the penetration rate of the car market. Focus on the targets benefiting from the greater flexibility of the U.S. market, focus on Tesla, LG, ski and Panasonic industrial chain, and focus on Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Guangdong Fangyuan Environment Co.Ltd(688148) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) , beiteri, China Baoan Group Co.Ltd(000009) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) .
(3) Since the second half of this year, the progress of new technologies for power batteries has accelerated, and the industrialization of new technologies such as 4680 large cylinders + CTC, composite collector technology (PET copper aluminum foil) and silicon carbon negative electrode has accelerated. Attention has been paid to the improvement of subdivision pattern by new technologies, including Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) , Kunshan Dongwei Technology Co.Ltd(688700) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , beiteri, Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) .
Grid:
1. “Photovoltaic information” reported that Shaoguan, Changde and other places suspended the filing of photovoltaic projects, mainly because the declared projects far exceeded the consumption capacity of the power grid; The administrative measures for the development and construction of photovoltaic power stations (Exposure Draft) of the energy bureau emphasizes that the supporting power transmission project of photovoltaic power stations should be coordinated with the construction of photovoltaic power stations; with the increase of renewable energy, especially the installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic, the consumption problem will become a contradiction again, and the investment in power grid and energy storage in relevant fields is expected to accelerate.
2. According to the disclosure of the State Grid e-commerce platform, from January to November 2021, the bidding amount of State Grid smart meters was 20 billion, an increase of 50% over the whole year of 2020. According to the provisions of the national metrological verification regulation of the people’s Republic of China, the verification cycle of electricity meters generally does not exceed 8 years. With the start of a new round of meter replacement cycle, it is expected that the meter will start a new round of business cycle. The new generation of smart meters has added modules such as remote communication and power quality detection, and the value of a single meter has increased significantly. With the launch of the carbon market, enterprises and governments have monitoring needs for key nodes of electric energy and carbon emission, and measurement equipment is expected to become the rigid demand for carbon reduction.
3. In December 2020, The Ministry of industry and information technology and other three departments issued the transformer energy efficiency improvement plan (2021-2023). The document has been implemented since June 2021, and it is proposed to increase the operation proportion of energy-saving transformers in the grid by 10% by 2023 (compared with the end of 2020). The recent power grid bidding has been reflected. Stock scale: there are about 17 million transformers operating in the power grid in China, and we expect the average annual demand to be about 570000 units from 2021 to 2023. Based on the average price of 20000 yuan / unit, the annual market scale is about 11.4 billion yuan. Incremental scale: the annual bidding for distribution transformers of the State Grid is about 200000-300000 units. Considering the industrial and commercial demand, we expect the annual incremental scale About 600000 sets. According to the proportion of 75% of the new fields, the annual demand for energy-saving transformers is 450000 sets (9 billion yuan). The total annual market demand is about 20.4 billion yuan. The promotion of energy-saving transformers will increase the consumption of amorphous materials and high-grade silicon steel in iron core, and the demand for energy-saving transformers and upstream materials is expected to increase.
In the context of accelerating the construction of a new power system, the power grid investment increased during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and there were great opportunities for structural investment in some fields. It is recommended to pay attention to:
1) Grid regulation, energy storage and SVG: Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) , Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , Shaanxi Baoguang Vacuum Electronic Apparatus Co.Ltd(600379) , Beijing Sifang Automation Co.Ltd(601126) , East Group Co.Ltd(300376) , Guangzhou Zhiguang Electric Co.Ltd(002169) , Windsun Science Technology Co.Ltd(688663) ;
3) Smart meter: Hangzhou Sunrise Technology Co.Ltd(300360) , Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) , Hexing Electrical Co.Ltd(603556) , Beijing Yupont Electric Power Technology Co.Ltd(688597) , Acrel Co.Ltd(300286) ;
2) Energy saving transformer: Yunlu Co., Ltd., Advanced Technology & Materials Co.Ltd(000969) , Jiangsu Yangdian Science & Technology Co.Ltd(301012) , State Grid Yingda Co.Ltd(600517) ;
4) Intelligent monitoring and maintenance of power grid: Hangzhou Kelin Electric Co.Ltd(688611) , Zhiyang Innovation Technology Co.Ltd(688191) , Hangzhou Shenhao Technology Co.Ltd(300853) , Yijiahe Technology Co.Ltd(603666) , China Southern Power Grid Technology (not listed after the meeting);
5) Gil gas insulated transmission: Jiangsu Ankura Smart Transmission Engineering Technology Co.Ltd(300617) .
Energy storage:
1、 Ningxia development and Reform Commission issued the notice on carrying out the pilot work of new energy storage projects (Draft for comments) , stimulate the construction of electrochemical energy storage through subsidies. The draft points out that in terms of scale, the total amount of new energy storage pilot projects in the whole autonomous region shall not exceed 0.9gw/1.8gwh; In terms of time: it needs to be connected to the grid before September 30, 2022; In terms of subsidies: peak shaving compensation of 0.8 yuan / kWh will be given in 22 / 23 years, and the number of full charge and discharge calls will not be less than 300 times a year. According to the minimum number of calls, the total subsidy amount in two years is 480 yuan / kWh. At present, the investment cost of energy storage system is about 1700 yuan / kWh, so the subsidy will cover at least 28% of the initial investment.
The apportionment of energy storage cost is the core issue in the current grid side energy storage construction. If it can be effectively solved, the grid side energy storage construction is expected to increase rapidly: in the follow-up, we need to continue to pay attention to the response methods related to grid enterprises in other provinces.
2. The US House of Representatives passed the US $1.75 trillion stimulus bill on energy storage: energy storage projects will receive ITC tax rebate. For energy storage systems higher than 5kwh, ITC tax rebate of up to 30% will be given by 2026, which is the first time to formulate a separate ITC tax rebate for energy storage. We believe that driven by this policy, the U.S. energy storage market is expected to accelerate growth in 22 years. We recommend Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Fujian Nebula Electronics.Ltd(300648) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , and pay attention to Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) .
3. Under the background of carbon peaking and carbon neutralization in China, the vigorous development of renewable energy is inseparable from the guarantee of large amount of energy storage for the stability of power system, and the construction progress of electrochemical energy storage and pumped storage has been accelerated; The demand of overseas household market rises, and the electrochemical energy storage market accelerates its growth. We are optimistic about investment opportunities in the energy storage industry for a long time.
4、 In terms of investment: (1) Ningde energy storage system benefited from the accelerated growth of the US market: recommend Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Fujian Nebula Electronics.Ltd(300648) ; (2) PCs benefited from the accelerated growth of the US market: recommend Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , pay attention to Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) ; (3) Huawei energy storage system: recommend Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , pay attention to Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) ; (4) benefited from the growth of the European market: recommend Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) , pay attention to Byd Company Limited(002594) ; (5) Industrial and commercial energy storage: recommended Shenzhen Sinexcel Electric Co.Ltd(300693) .
New energy operators:
1. The pilot of green trading mechanism has been launched, the state and enterprises have accelerated the development of new energy power generation, and financial institutions are expected to further increase their support for new energy operation projects in the future. Under the triple logic, we are optimistic about the future investment opportunities of new energy operators.
2. In terms of investment: (1) leading operators: recommend China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) and pay attention to Longyuan Power (H); (2) accelerate transformation: pay attention to Guangdong Electric Power Development Co.Ltd(000539) , China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) , Jiangsu New Energy Development Co.Ltd(603693) , Fujian Funeng Co.Ltd(600483) ; (3) promote EPC in the whole county: recommend Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) and pay attention to Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) .
Wind power:
1. The biggest share price elasticity of the wind power industry comes from the decline of the cost side, and the judgment of the trend of economic data and steel price is the core: according to the data of Lange steel network, the steel price entered the downward channel after reaching the high point on October 11, down 17% as of November 26.
2. Domestic substitution + Dual sea strategy is the long-term development direction of wind power industry. Under the catalysis of “carbon neutralization”, coastal provinces are strengthening the planning and construction of offshore wind power. At the same time, under the background of large-scale and domestic substitution, the process of offshore wind parity is expected to accelerate. In the future, if the national level also continues to strengthen the development and approval of projects in sea areas under state control, we believe that the new installed capacity of offshore wind power in China is expected to exceed expectations during the “14th five year plan”.
3. In terms of investment: (1) Haifeng construction is expected to exceed expectations. Under the domestic substitution logic, recommend Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) and pay attention to Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , Jiangyin Hengrun Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(603985) ; (2) under the domestic substitution logic, pay attention to Zhejiang Xcc Group Co.Ltd;(603667) , Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) ; (3) under the profit recovery logic, pay attention to Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) and Sany Heavy energy (to be listed).
Photovoltaic: 1. The U.S. House of Representatives passed Biden’s buildbackbetteract, which further improved the understanding of new energy
The tax relief of the project is expected to continue to push up the new photovoltaic installed capacity in the United States in the next five years.
2. Although the price of silicon material remains stable in the short term, the prices of downstream links of the industrial chain fluctuate to varying degrees. The price of silicon material link is under pressure, and the profitability of components and operators is expected to be improved in the future.
3. Shanghai Tianyang Hotmelt Adhesives Co.Ltd(603330) announced to expand the production of adhesive film by 450 million square meters. The rubber film does not account for a high proportion of the component cost, but it is very important to the component quality. The bargaining pressure is relatively small, the track is stable and the pattern is excellent.
4. Current focus: (1) adhesive film field: focus on Cybrid Technologies Inc(603212) , Shanghai Tianyang Hotmelt Adhesives Co.Ltd(603330) , Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) ; (2) crystalline silicon link: the integrated profit is stable to lower the inventory, and the players are relatively strong in the game. Recommend Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) ; (3) benefit from cost reduction: focus on Arctech Solar Holding Co.Ltd(688408) .
Risk tips:
The sales volume of new energy vehicles and the expansion of overseas auto enterprises were less than expected; The progress of issuing policies is less than expected; The recovery of fan bidding price is lower than expected, and the price of raw materials in the industrial chain fluctuates; The investment and information construction of State Grid are lower than expected risks; The implementation of environmental protection policies and the signing of orders are lower than expected.
