Interpretation of A-share annual report forecast and year-end market back test
As of November 26, 2021, a total of 50 companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen have disclosed annual performance forecasts, with a performance forecast rate of 82%, a total of 41 companies. Among the 41 Enterprises with good performance, there are many enterprises in the pharmaceutical, biological, electronic, chemical and mechanical equipment industries, including 6, 4, 4 and 4 respectively.
In terms of performance growth, based on the average growth rate of net profit in the performance forecast, the net profit growth rate of 21 enterprises is more than 20%, accounting for a large number of industries, including medicine and biology, electronics, light industry manufacturing and electrical equipment. The net profit growth rate of 6 enterprises is expected to exceed 100%, and pharmaceutical and biological enterprises account for 50%.
Up to now, the industries with a large number of pre hi enterprises in the annual report are computer, medicine and biology, electronics, mechanical equipment, chemical industry and light industry manufacturing. From the perspective of valuation, the lower absolute valuation (P / E ratio TTM) of the above six industries are light industry manufacturing (20.87), chemical industry (21.2) and mechanical equipment (27.79), and the lower relative valuation (P / E ratio is at the valuation quantile of recent three years) are electronics (25.38%) and light industry manufacturing (25.52%). In terms of market performance, the industries with higher growth since this year are chemical industry (36.01%) and mechanical equipment (13.88%).
Combined with the performance in the past two years, the growth rate of net profit in 2020 and the growth rate of performance forecast in 2021 exceeded 10%, the number of enterprises was 15, and the electronic and mechanical equipment industry accounted for more than 30%, 3 and 2 respectively. There are three enterprises with performance growth of more than 100% for two consecutive years. With the disclosure of annual report performance, the A-share market has entered the performance verification period, and investors’ attention to annual customs declaration will increase. It is recommended that investors pay attention to the high-quality targets of high growth and low value sectors, especially the high-quality companies with continuous performance growth in recent two years.
In two more trading days, A-Shares will usher in the last trading month at the end of 2021. From the historical back test, the CSI 300 index has a high probability of rising at the end of the year, 60%, with an average increase of 3.8%.
Specifically, in terms of industries, the sectors with high rise probability in December in the past decade include household appliances, food and beverage, medicine and biology, leisure services and non-ferrous metals, with an increase probability of more than 60%. Among them, food and beverage and household appliances increased by an average of 3.81% and 3.36% in December in the past decade, which is mainly due to the traditional peak consumption season at the end of the year, which is directly beneficial to the large consumption sector.
General trend study and judgment
This week, the market grew first and then declined. The main indexes showed differentiation. The pro cyclical plates such as non-ferrous steel led the rise again, and the leisure services, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery plates fell significantly. Recently, the market hot spots rotate rapidly and the stock game characteristics are obvious. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the changes in policy and capital.
In terms of performance, at present, the performance prediction rate of A-share annual report has reached 82%, with a total of 41 enterprises, including many enterprises in pharmaceutical, biological, electronic, chemical and mechanical equipment industries. In terms of performance growth, based on the average growth rate of net profit in the performance forecast, the net profit growth rate of 21 enterprises is more than 20%, accounting for a large number of industries, including medicine and biology, electronics, light industry manufacturing and electrical equipment. Combined with the performance growth in the past two years, the growth rate of net profit in 2020 and the growth rate of performance forecast in 2021 exceeded 10%, the number of enterprises was 15, and the electronic and mechanical equipment industry accounted for more than 30%.
In terms of capital, the trading of A-Shares has warmed up, and the turnover has exceeded trillion yuan for 26 consecutive trading days. In the last four days, the volume has shrunk continuously, and the momentum to continue to fall is insufficient. The space for subsequent sharp decline is limited. In addition, there are signs of continuous recovery of funds going north recently. The funds going north for two consecutive weeks are net inflows, and the cumulative net purchase this month is nearly 20 billion yuan, which is in line with our judgment on the “tail raising market” of going north. It is recommended that investors continue to follow up and pay attention.
Technically, the Shanghai stock index rose first and then declined this week. It broke through 3600 points on Wednesday and continued to callback in the next two trading days. However, it went out of the bottom recovery trend on Friday and received strong support near 3550 points, closing above the 10 day moving average. Looking forward to the future, the Shanghai index has strong support above 3530 points, and the downward space is limited.
In terms of macroeconomic data, according to the newly released profit data of industrial enterprises, the profits of industrial enterprises increased steadily in October, the demand of consumer goods manufacturing industry recovered, and the high-tech manufacturing industry continued to maintain a high boom. In the first ten months of 2021, industrial enterprises above Designated Size achieved a total profit of 7164.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.2% and an average increase of 19.7% in the two years. In terms of major industries, the profits of mining and manufacturing increased rapidly; Profits in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water fell. The demand of consumer goods manufacturing industry has warmed up, and the profit has changed from decline to increase. The high-tech manufacturing industry maintained a high boom and its profits maintained rapid growth.
Recently, under the influence of the mutant virus, the peripheral stock markets have declined one after another. However, from the historical experience, the trend of A-Shares is relatively independent. In addition, the recent capital continues to pick up and the policy remains loose expectations. It is expected that the market will probably maintain a volatile market in the short term. It is suggested that investors pay attention to structural opportunities and grasp three main lines in terms of allocation:
1、 Pay attention to the investment opportunities in the pre hi sector of the annual report. At present, a total of 50 enterprises in Shanghai and Shenzhen have disclosed the annual performance forecast, with a performance forecast rate of 82%, a total of 41 enterprises, including many enterprises in the pharmaceutical, biological, electronic, chemical and mechanical equipment industries. The net profit growth rate of 21 enterprises was more than 20%, accounting for a large number of industries, including pharmaceutical biology, electronics, light industry manufacturing and electrical equipment. With the disclosure of annual report performance, investors’ attention to annual customs declaration will increase. It is suggested to pay attention to the high-quality target of high growth and low value in the annual report, especially the high-quality companies with continuous growth in performance in the past two years. Superimposed on the impact of recent health events, the pharmaceutical and biological sector is expected to receive financial attention.
2、 Focus on investment opportunities in sectors with high winning rate in the market at the end of the year. From the historical back test, the CSI 300 index has a high probability of rising at the end of the year in the past decade, with an average increase of 60% and 3.8%. In terms of industries, the sectors with high rise probability in December in the past decade include household appliances, food and beverage, medicine and biology, leisure services and non-ferrous metals.
3、 The science and technology growth sector that continues to maintain a high outlook has long-term investment opportunities. Recently, funds have continued to flow northward, and foreign capital has intensively investigated a shares, mainly focusing on the science and technology growth track. With the support of the national dual carbon strategy and independent and controllable strategy, the fundamentals and policies of the science and technology growth sector have been improving for a long time, which is expected to promote the optimization of industrial economic structure and help economic transformation and upgrading, In the future, we recommend investors to closely track the investment opportunities in the high boom and high-end manufacturing direction represented by new energy / semiconductors.
Risk tip: the policy promotion is less than expected, the economy is lower than expected, and the peripheral environment is weaker than expected
