1、 What was the state of A-share before the emergence of mutant strains—— Viewing the environment of A-Shares from the two-dimensional framework of “credit profit”
The two key words were removed from the monetary policy implementation report, and the bottom of credit became the consistent expectation.
But structural wide credit or overall wide credit – mainly depends on the export, manufacturing and employment chain.
U.S. consumption → China’s export → manufacturing investment → employment → dr007, the five data are highly correlated and form a logical chain. At present (from July to October), they continue to exceed expectations.
A-share profit forecast in 2022: the profit growth rate continues to decline, and Q2 may reach the bottom in 22 years.
According to the current situation (the profit growth rate is down, the credit has gradually seen the bottom, but it has not expanded, and even if the expansion is not strong enough for the time being), we may be in the stage of transition from [late credit contraction] to [early credit expansion]. The corresponding market may not have much index opportunities, but mainly structural opportunities.
Structural opportunities, continue to be optimistic about two main lines: ① industrial prosperity can continue (military industry, lithium mine, photovoltaic, wind power and energy storage); ② dilemma reversal (traditional automobile and parts, essential food and pork)
19q1 and 20q2-q3 are the few opportunities for sharp rise of index level in recent years, that is, the stage where positions are much heavier than structure. They have the following characteristics:
① Day time: the credit cycle is fully expanded, such as page 9 of the PPT; (at present, structural wide credit is more likely, unless the export chain collapses immediately)
② Geographical advantage: profits hit the bottom and rebounded, such as page 9 of PPT; (at present, the profit continues to decline and is expected to reach the bottom in Q2 in 22)
③ Renhe: the yield difference of 300 stock bonds in Shanghai and Shenzhen is at – 2x standard deviation, that is, the most attractive position of the index, such as page 12 of PPT; (at present, it fluctuates around the average)
2、 After the emergence of variant strains, the possible scenario interpretation mainly depends on the extent to which the new strains surpass Delta
On the other hand, if the new strain is similar to delta virus, the impact on A-Shares is relatively limited and may only be a one-time impact.
If the new strain far exceeds Delta, the impact of short-term risk preference linkage from overseas markets may be greater.
In the medium term, if this is a more serious virus invasion, on the one hand, China’s control will be more strict, which is not conducive to the recovery of some service consumption; On the other hand, it impacts the global supply chain, but it is actually good for China, because it helps Chinese enterprises to increase their global share, which is manifested in that the export side continues to exceed expectations. At the same time, the policy level may continue to use the good environment and window of export → manufacturing → employment to clear the risks of the real estate industry as soon as possible, which is reflected in credit, More structural credit relief and non comprehensive stimulus.
Risk tips: the epidemic spread exceeded expectations, the epidemic prevention policies outside China exceeded expectations, macroeconomic risks, performance failure to meet expectations, etc.
