Key investment points:
Recent covid-19 virus variant B.1 1.529 is widely concerned by the market, and investors are concerned about the impact of new strains on the market. We believe that from the perspective of the previous epidemic, it will have multiple impacts, both positive and negative. In addition to the negative impact on the economy such as destroying the service industry and interfering with the supply chain, another actual result is the loose overweight of the global central bank, and the rise of exports of some industries in China has strengthened the substitution of global supply chain links. At present, first of all, it is not clear about the transmission and destructive power of the new mutant strain, let alone the loose expectation. Therefore, at present, it is judged that the impact is neutral, but the uncertainty has increased. It is suggested to see more and move less, focus on wait-and-see, wait for the impact scope, destructive power and policy response of the new round of epidemic to be gradually clear, and wait for the Political Bureau meeting and the central economic work conference to set the tone for next year’s economic policy in mid December. If there is a short-term sharp decline in the market, you can be more optimistic about the future market. In terms of configuration, we should pay attention to the stability of performance and the certainty of high prosperity next year. It is suggested to temporarily avoid some industries that may be affected by the outbreak of the epidemic.
Configuration: at present, the focus is on the high prosperity and long track represented by “Ning combination”, including photovoltaic, new energy vehicles (auto parts, lithium resources, lithium batteries), CXO, military industry, etc. continue to pay attention to the opportunities for valuation and repair of food and beverage sectors. Avoid Tourism, catering, aviation and other industries that may be affected by the outbreak of the epidemic.
Risk tips: 1 Global liquidity inflection point; 2. The impact of bankruptcy of the real estate company exceeds expectations; 3. The epidemic situation exceeded expectations; 4. Inflation exceeded expectations.
