Macro view: 1. The risk preference of major global assets has declined rapidly in the short term. The new variant of covid-19 is only the fuse to trigger the swing of risk preference, and the essential change comes from the trend change of monetary and fiscal policy of the United States to deal with the epidemic. 2. In the past, the United States hedged the demand impact caused by the epidemic through monetary and fiscal policies, but the supply side impact has shown significant negative externalities and affected the sustained recovery of the U.S. economy. With the development of time and the epidemic, the US economic policy is expected to shift from stimulating demand in the past to stimulating supply recovery and curbing inflation. This new economic policy shift will be verified in the development of this round of global covid-19 epidemic, and will affect the change of global economic structure to a certain extent, which is mainly reflected in the impact of U.S. – driven liquidity and aggregate demand convergence. 2. During the epidemic cycle, China’s economic policy focuses on coping with overseas shocks, and takes this time window to accelerate the adjustment of China’s economic structure. With overseas shocks, especially the gradual weakening of inflation pressure driven by the United States, China’s economic policy will return to the long-term sustainable stability framework. 3. China’s economy has remained stable for a long time, showing a parallel trend of long-term stable leverage and high-quality development. Carbon neutralization and population structure will keep the economy moderate inflation in the long run, and guide the change direction of economic structure and the profit distribution path of common prosperity. 4. The trend of real estate policy is determined, the investment attribute of real estate is transferred to consumption attribute, and the endogenous economic fluctuation is more and more stable. In the medium term, with the gradual improvement of China’s supply, the profit distribution will be balanced again, and the economy is expected to stabilize and recover. 5. The structural imbalance of overseas short-term supply recovery and the uncertainty of epidemic situation inhibit the rapid recovery of supply. The normalization of epidemic situation in the medium term and overseas supply recovery will be the trend. It is only a matter of time before the global economy returns to normal, but the global economy lacks long-term economic action. 6. There are obvious signs of credit collection in the U.S. monetary policy, but the upward strength of interest rates is still limited, and the impact of inflation on interest rates is limited. However, the lack of endogenous power of the economy itself and the high macro leverage ratio still greatly restrict the upward space of U.S. interest rates. 7. China’s short-term credit is subject to the recovery rhythm of global supply, especially the improvement of supply and demand pattern in the United States needs more time.
Market view: 1. With the marginal improvement of energy constraints, overseas inflation gradually enters a downward trend, the economic profit distribution is expected to be balanced, and the market beta market will turn to alpha market. This time rhythm and certainty should continue to track China’s credit situation. 2. The A-share market is particularly abundant in the context of the decline of real estate, and the allocation impulse is still strong. The short-term alpha plate has made an obvious run, and the short-term transaction risk has increased slightly, but it does not affect the trend characteristics of the market. 3. Hong Kong technology stocks are at the bottom affected by policies and U.S. liquidity, and U.S. stocks represented by Nasdaq 100 are still in a long-term upward trend.
Trading strategy: 1. Be optimistic about the CSI 300 index and pay attention to the risk of beta and small and medium-sized stocks caused by style deviation. 2. 2. We are optimistic about the head companies of food and beverage, medicine and real estate, and pay attention to the long-term allocation value of military industry. 3. Pay attention to the systematic upward opportunities of manufacturing leaders after real estate stabilizes. 4. Optimistic about the repair of Hong Kong stock Internet Index and the long-term upward trend of Nasdaq 100.
Market resumption: A-Shares fluctuated upward this month. Entrepreneurship trigger and Kechuang 50 showed eye-catching performance in the whole month, while SSE 50 weakened, with the largest decline this month. In terms of market style, small cap stocks performed well, rising 4.74% against the trend, led by long-range gains. Large cap stocks weakened and medium cap stocks rebounded and rose. In terms of valuation, the valuation led the market this month, the overvalued value continued the upward trend last week, and the undervalued value continued to weaken. The medium valuation sector has become the main driving force driving the upward attack of the all a index.
Industry performance: the growth style continued to rise this month, the consumption style rose against the trend, and the historical performance was excellent; Financial stability and style continued to weaken. The communications and non-ferrous metals industries performed well, led by the leisure services sector.
Short term market sentiment: the net inflow of funds going north narrowed, and the cumulative net inflow increased steadily. From the perspective of changes in the number of shares held by the industry, the number of shares held by electronics, computers and commercial trade increased significantly, while the number of shares held by banks, non-ferrous metals and public utilities decreased relatively greatly. The main inflow industries of funds going north are: electrical equipment, electronics, food and beverage, chemical industry and computer; The main outflow industries are household appliances, building materials and banks. The amount of two financial transactions rebounded and rose, up 462.258 billion yuan month on month, accounting for 7.81%, down 0.18 percentage points from last month. Financing transactions entered in large quantities against the trend this month. The implied volatility of SSE 50ETF options decreased by 3.31 percentage points to the current value of 15.25%; The current value of the S & P 500 volatility (VIX) index is 28.62, up 11.64 from the previous value.
Long term market sentiment: market risk appetite fell. At present, the yield of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 dividend – 10-year Treasury bond is – 0.66%, up 0.16 percentage points month on month, above the average, at the historical 73% quantile; The current value of A-share implied equity risk premium (ERP) is 2.28%, with a month on month increase of 0.02 percentage points, above the average and at the historical 54% quantile. Compared with last month, ERP in the popular sector is all up month on month.
Risk tip: downside risk of China’s economy; Liquidity tightening exceeded expectations; The epidemic rebound exceeded expectations; Big country game Risk
