Market review: the index rose after opening low, led by the national defense and military industry sector
Today, the two cities opened low and fluctuated higher. As of the close, the Shanghai index fell 0.04% to 3562.70 and the Shenzhen index rose 0.22% to 14810.20. In terms of sectors, national defense and military industry, electrical equipment and automobiles led the increase, while leisure services, real estate and household appliances led the decline. The turnover of the two cities was 1177.57 billion yuan, an increase of 6.89% over the previous trading day and a contraction of 0.22% over the average of the previous five days. The net purchase of Shanghai Stock connect was 580 million yuan, the net purchase of Shenzhen Stock connect was 2.704 billion yuan, and the net purchase of northbound funds throughout the day was 3.284 billion yuan.
Market focus:
On November 26, who released covid-19 virus variant B.1 1.529 was listed as a “need attention” variant and named Omicron (Omicron). The statement also pointed out that preliminary studies showed that the mutant increased the risk of human infection with the virus. Data show that up to 90% of the new infection cases in Gauteng Province, South Africa, are caused by Omicron mutant. At present, South Africa, Hong Kong, Belgium, the United Kingdom, Germany and Italy have confirmed the infection cases of “Omicron mutant strain”, and the Netherlands and the Czech Republic have also reported the discovery of relevant suspected cases.
Strategy suggestion: it is suggested to pay attention to the high boom sub circuit of the growth plate
Under the influence of the news of overseas Omicron mutant over the weekend, the two cities opened sharply lower in the morning. On the disk, only the pharmaceutical, biological, food and beverage sectors performed strongly, the leisure service sector led the decline, and individual stocks in the aviation concept and tax-free concept sector fell sharply. Since then, electronic equipment, national defense and military industry, automobile and other sectors have rapidly pulled up and reversed, driving the decline of the Shanghai index to narrow and the Shenzhen index to turn red.
In terms of the research and judgment of the general trend of a shares, we believe that the emergence of the new variant of covid-19 has limited negative impact on a shares, and may even lead to the amplification of volume and energy, drive the cross-year market to start in advance, and bring trend market opportunities to some sectors of the market. First, the tone of China’s monetary policy is very clear. After the upward pressure on prices further decreases, it may start the process of marginal easing, and the emergence of new mutants will further strengthen the expectation of easing. The recent epidemic situation in Europe continues to deteriorate, and the United States and South Korea are also not optimistic. The emergence of a new variant of covid-19 may once again exacerbate the supply chain problems in Europe and the United States and frustrate their economic recovery momentum. The tightening pace of overseas central banks may slow down, and global commodity prices are expected to fall, so that China can adopt a relatively more active monetary policy to deal with the downward pressure on China’s economy, Focus on the signal release of the central economic work conference at the end of the year. Second, the attractiveness of China’s market to foreign capital is expected to be further improved, driving the incremental allocation of foreign capital into the market. From a fundamental perspective, China has always adhered to relatively strict entry epidemic prevention measures since the outbreak of the epidemic. The impact of the emergence of new mutants on China is expected to be much less than that of overseas countries. From a market perspective, compared with European and American stock indexes and other emerging markets, China’s A-Shares have been relatively stable this year, except that individual sectors have risen sharply in the structural market. The resurgence of the epidemic has relatively limited space to trigger the downward exploration of China’s asset prices. To sum up, the market volatility caused by mood changes may be difficult to sustain, and China’s A-share market still has better layout opportunities. The specific infectivity, pathogenicity and other characteristics of Omicron mutant are the most critical uncertainty factors. It is recommended to continuously track relevant research and information.
In terms of plates, we believe that the fundamental logic of procyclical plates may change significantly. Global commodity prices have fallen and China’s determination to transform energy has become stronger. Although coal mining and other sectors have experienced a deep correction, they still have great uncertainty. It is recommended to deal with them carefully. The vaccine, covid-19 detection and other sub sectors in pharmaceutical biology are still expected to maintain a certain boom under the normalized epidemic prevention and control. It is recommended to pay attention. In addition, the sub sectors in the growth style such as the new energy vehicle industry chain and the sectors with strong performance growth certainty such as national defense and military industry have better medium and long-term configuration value, so it is recommended to continue to pay attention.
Risk tip: the macro-economy is less than expected, the national epidemic situation is more than expected, and the geopolitical risk is intensified.
