On the eve of the Spring Festival in 2020, the covid-19 epidemic suddenly disrupted the original rhythm of economic development. Looking back on the development of the industry in the past two years, it can be described as ups and downs. The eight words “after danger, opportunity, prosperity and decline” have been fully interpreted in different tracks and different periods. The industry known for its “stability” began to “unstable”, while Baijiu as elastic track showed its elasticity, the most vigorous Spring Festival sales in the past ten years. Therefore, at the beginning of the outlook for 2022, we selected two keywords “cycle”.
Some investors do not like the cycle and think that the cycle is unstable and there is no way to overestimate. Everything is cyclical and fluctuates with the economic development cycle. As consumer goods, they will fluctuate upward for a long time in the future. It is normal to spiral up the steps. In the consumer sub track, the upward rate of high-end goods is faster, which is a specific product of our stage of economic development. Therefore, when studying the food and beverage industry, we are not afraid of the cycle. We should look for opportunities in the cycle. While long-term value investment is optimistic about large consumption and high-end products, we should also look for periodic “speculative opportunities”. The Baijiu liquor is expected to be delivered in a timely manner. Looking forward to 2022, for the Baijiu industry, the three year small cycle will enter the second half, and high-end – secondary high – estate wine will be transmitted in a timely manner. Popular food is expected to welcome the “bull market”, and the four cycle resonance of condiment is the most obvious. Looking forward to 2022, condiments are expected to usher in the resonance of inventory cycle, price cycle, cost cycle and demand cycle. In addition, the beer sector with large-scale price increase in the industry may also accelerate the growth of profit side next year.
In addition to the industry changes caused by cyclical fluctuations, the investment opportunities of growth tracks are also our focus, so we focus on growth in the second half of the report. In recent years, there are many listed food and beverage companies with a compound growth rate of more than 20%. In addition to the large single product model, a package of companies are concentrated in the same track – catering supply chain. With the vigorous development of catering supply chain and the mutual penetration of upstream and downstream, the “family” of prefabricated semi-finished products listed companies has added more members. Looking forward to 2022, it is expected that the growth rate of catering supply chain companies will be significantly faster than that of the whole food and beverage industry, among which the development process of upstream food end is faster and more definite.
