Industry configuration this week:
Over allocation: military industry, electrical equipment, electronics, securities companies
Standard configuration: Food and beverage, communication, computer, automobile, medicine, machinery, banking, non-ferrous metals, real estate, steel, mining, media, light industry, chemical industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery
Low allocation: leisure service, transportation, building materials
Performance of industry allocation last week: the absolute return of the portfolio since the beginning of the year is 69.77%, which is 72.37% relative to the excess return of CSI 300
Valuation: CSI 300iape is above the 50th percentile and CSI 300pb is above the 30th percentile. Shanghai IAPE is close to the 40th percentile, Shanghai Pb is close to the 30th percentile, Shanghai 50iape is above the 50th percentile and Shanghai 50pb is below the 40th percentile. IAPE on GEM rebounded to close to the 90th percentile, and Pb on GEM was above the 90th percentile.
The allocation value of stocks relative to bonds is still dominant. Shenwan industry was mixed, with non-ferrous metals, iron and steel, food and beverage, medicine and biology, commercial trade and so on.
Combined with Pb and expected roe, photovoltaic, vaccine, phosphorus chemical industry, innovative drugs, new energy, Internet of things, specialized and special new sectors have better cost performance. Combined with PEG and expected g, the prosperity of photovoltaic, biological vaccine, new energy, aerospace equipment, lithium battery, cro and other sectors is better.
Monetary & Interest Rate: monetary policy is expected to maintain a stable and loose tone in the fourth quarter.
upper reaches
The spread of new mutant strains in South Africa and the panic decline in crude oil prices
The demand for winter storage is increasing, and the coal price is still supported
The new variant virus triggered panic selling, and non-ferrous metals were under pressure
Brazilian shipments fell and iron ore bottomed out
middle reaches
Steel demand rebounded, and follow-up attention was paid to the investment opportunities at the bottom of the plate
Transformation of new energy structure and further marketization of green power
Cement and glass prices continued to decline
Near the opening of the Winter Olympics, liquid chlorine ranks first
The transportation sector fell and shipping tension or intensified
downstream
The marginal adjustment of real estate financial policies has helped stabilize growth and orderly resolve risks
Smart appliances are developing well
Baijiu plate heating
TMT
Electronics: semiconductor in short supply, automotive electronics boom up
Computer: focus on intelligent driving computing platform
Media: the State Administration of supervision has further improved the industry supervision system
Risk tips: the risk of macroeconomic failure to meet expectations, the risk of monetary policy tightening beyond expectations, the risk of regulatory policy exceeding expectations, the risk of industry prosperity failing to meet expectations, and the risk of stagflation
