abstract
At present, the mutant strain Omicron, which is more infectious than Delta, broke out in South Africa and further spread all over the world. As of November 27, The transmission of Omicron has been found in five countries and regions (South Africa, Egypt, Belgium, Israel and Hong Kong, China). Because the ability of this variant virus to break through the immune barrier is much higher than Delta, there are some countries at present (Israel) has restarted the state blockade. The market is worried that this measure will expand, which will once again affect the expectation of economy and corporate profits. Affected by the spread of covid-19 mutant in South Africa, stock markets in various countries have fallen significantly. On November 26, the Dow Jones industrial index fell 2.5%, the NASDAQ index fell 2.3%, the Nikkei index fell 2.5% and the UK FTSE 10 0 fell 3.6%, France CAC40 fell 4.8% and Germany DAX fell 4.2%.
It can be said that the current market is facing many uncertain factors, so we need to grasp the certainty in the uncertainty. Market risk mainly comes from two aspects:
First, the highly infectious variant of covid-19 virus may break through the current human epidemic prevention system, adding great uncertainty to the prevention and control of covid-19 virus. Some countries have begun to re close their countries (Israel), which may have a significant impact on the slow recovery of the world economy;
Second, with the coming of negative population growth, the long-term downward pressure on China's real estate is far from being released. Real estate developers are still facing various difficulties, which can not be solved through financing liberalization. With the decline of real estate, sectors with more real estate assets such as trust, insurance and banks will be under pressure, and the reduction of land transfer income will gradually increase the financial pressure of local governments.
Investment strategy: in response, we need to allocate sectors that can avoid these risks and maintain their own steady growth. Specifically, we believe that there are three directions to pay special attention to: first, the pharmaceutical sector deserves special attention. Because the early adjustment of the pharmaceutical sector is relatively sufficient, and on the policy side, the consequences of too strict medical insurance fee control gradually appear. It is expected that the medical insurance fee control policy is expected to be gradually relaxed in the future, and the profits of pharmaceutical companies are expected to be gradually restored. At the same time, the aging trend of population and the uncertainty of covid-19 epidemic have increased the demand of the pharmaceutical sector, so it is worth configuring. Second, the military industry sector, which can avoid the economic downside risk, still deserves attention. There was a certain correction in the early stage of the military industry sector, with an overall valuation of more than 50 times, which matched the performance growth in 2022. The performance growth of the leading target is expected to double in 2022, so it still has a high cost performance. Third, the mandatory consumption sector with price transmission mechanism and relatively stable demand.
Risk tip: the performance is less than expected.
