Main points:
In the short term, the market will be dominated by shock trend. There are still structural opportunities due to the recent hot spot switching and the rebound of science and technology growth plate.
From the liquidity indicators, the recent liquidity is neutral. Shibor short-term interest rate fluctuates at normal level; LPR remained unchanged for 19 consecutive months; The yield of China national debt fluctuated near the average value of the year. Last week, the shares of newly established partial equity funds fell, and the overall strength in the third quarter was stronger than that in the second quarter; The latest financial balance of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1853.7 billion yuan, which was relatively stable; In terms of social finance, new RMB loans fell in October; Recently, A-share IPO Financing rose and fell. The net inflow of funds from the north in recent one week was 5.71 billion yuan, and the net inflow of funds from the south in recent one week was 242 million yuan.
Judging from the market sentiment indicators, the recent sentiment is acceptable. The high number of strong stocks in the upper part of mA20 has dropped slightly, the number of trading stocks is near the average value, and the height of the connecting board is low; Affected by the new mutant virus Omicron, the global market fell on Friday, and market panic spread. Considering the marginal effect of the virus on the economic impact, if the market overreacts or has a rebound opportunity.
From the perspective of market valuation, the overall valuation of the two cities is still in a reasonable range. From the perspective of risk premium indicators, with the recent weak adjustment of the market, the risk premiums of CSI 300 and CSI 500 fluctuate near the average. The two types of risk premium indicators are similar. In terms of overall style, the small and medium-sized market is slightly stronger than the market.
In terms of profitability, the earnings data of listed companies attracted attention during the financial report disclosure period of the third quarter. The growth rate of A-share earnings in the third quarter of this year continued to fall compared with the second quarter; High PPI and rising raw material prices squeeze the profits of middle and downstream companies. Since this year, the profitability of the cycle style is much stronger than that of other styles, which matches the pro cycle market, and fell greatly in the third quarter. The growth style is the second, and the growth rate fell slightly in the third quarter, so the growth style has advantages.
Investment suggestions:
Considering the recent performance, valuation and profitability of the industry, we are optimistic about the recent focus: affected by the new mutant virus Omicron, epidemic prevention related medicine, biology, food and beverage have once again entered the vision of investors, and the adjusted valuation of the two industries since this year is relatively reasonable, which can be paid more attention. The heat of the main line of new energy is not reduced, and the traditional production capacity is difficult to release due to the impact of environmental protection policies. In the long term, it is optimistic about new energy such as wind power and Optoelectronics in the upstream, which is in line with the carbon neutralization policy and the future energy development direction. The industries related to electrical equipment in the midstream and new energy vehicles in the downstream can continue to pay attention. Science and technology topics benefit from the boost of high-tech topics by the opening of the Beijing stock exchange. Recently, the electronics and computer industries have rebounded continuously and can continue to pay attention in the short term.
Risk tips:
The epidemic situation is repeated, the economic data is less than expected, the friction between China and the United States is intensified, the impact of the instability of the global financial environment, and the financial report data is less than expected.
