Core view
Carbon pricing policy: whether deduced from the goal of “30.60” and the overall trend of carbon emission reduction, or the necessity of two-wheel drive of carbon trading mechanism under the gradual improvement of carbon pricing policy, and the implementation of international systems similar to “carbon border regulation mechanism”, it forces major economies to effectively carry out substantive carbon emission reduction actions, Both point to the more mature development of carbon pricing policy.
Industry enlightenment: (1) with the gradual development of carbon emission reduction, the proportion of coal with the highest carbon density in the main energy consumption will be greatly reduced; (2) compared with coal and crude oil, natural gas has lower carbon emission. In the process of the gradual development of renewable energy and increasing the proportion of energy consumption, natural gas will still play a transitional role in a certain period of time; (3) As the main force of future energy under the background of carbon neutralization and carbon peak, and the favorable field in the development of carbon pricing policy, there is no doubt about the bright development prospect of renewable energy and green low-carbon industry. On the contrary, industries with high investment, high energy consumption and high emission will be significantly affected.
Reference for the design of carbon trading mechanism: combined with the experience of China’s and EU’s carbon trading markets, it can be seen that the change of carbon emission reduction intensity under the carbon emission reduction target and the design of main factors of carbon trading mechanism, And appropriate adjustment mechanism (such as MSR) are very key to the impact of carbon trading price. When the above factors are superimposed with the price rise under the tight supply pattern of resource products, carbon trading price is often prone to a large rise.
Carbon price trend: in the short term, China’s carbon price lacks the underlying logical support of design mechanism, market-oriented development and price linkage, and the trend of carbon price is still difficult to reasonably feed back the real situation of the market like euets. We should focus on the guidance and improvement of key policies of carbon trading mechanism, the realization of emission reduction and capital participation, etc; In the long run, it is only a matter of time for the carbon trading price to return to the value of carbon emission cost. The rising channel will open with the boost of various macro environmental objectives and policies. The above main concerns are the key to timing.
Views on carbon tax: it is only a matter of time before the carbon tax is levied at the right time, and the market-oriented emission reduction driven by the carbon trading mechanism is in line with China’s national conditions, and the timing of the carbon tax tool is only a matter of time.
Report body
Achieving carbon neutralization by 2060 is a solemn commitment made by China to the international community. China’s fossil energy consumption accounts for 84% of the energy structure, and coal alone accounts for 56.8%. China has a long way to go under the goal of carbon neutralization. As an important means to balance economic development and carbon dioxide emission reduction, carbon pricing has both flexibility and economic efficiency. It mainly takes the carbon trading mechanism with incentive emission reduction as the core and the carbon tax policy with punishment emission as the core as the main tools.
In the construction of carbon trading mechanism, the EU, as a pioneer, has a relatively mature development, and the market has a certain effectiveness, which can be used for reference; The recent rise in carbon prices is a short-term boost to the impact of policy factors (driven by the EU’s stringent energy and environmental protection policies), market expectations (boosted by the ambition of cop26 carbon neutralization and emission reduction) and the real environment (low temperature, tight natural gas supply, rising coal prices) and other comprehensive factors. China takes the carbon trading pilot as the starting point. At present, the mechanism design is relatively comprehensive, but there are still deficiencies. In the future, with the further marketization of power market and carbon market and the corresponding development of financial tools, we will have better feedback on market changes and form a price linkage Move.
The timing of China’s carbon tax policy is only a matter of time. It is expected to drive market-oriented emission reduction with the carbon trading mechanism. It is also in line with the reality of China’s large carbon emission volume and complex industrial structure, and coordinate with the carbon emission trading system.
Risk statement
Policy change risk, macro downside risk, and the risk that the industry’s new capacity exceeds expectations.
