December allocation view: balanced allocation to deal with the closing Market
Review: our view in November was to do a good job in the local areas first, and then wait for the opportunity to counter attack. It is suggested to focus on the new potential directions emerging recently, such as new energy, electronics, military industry and meta universe. At the index level, in November, the market was biased towards small and medium-sized indexes, with small and medium-sized indexes such as Guozheng 2000, China Securities 1000 and China Securities 500 leading the increase, and large-scale indexes such as Shanghai Securities 50, China Securities 100 and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 closing down. At the industry level, defense and military industry, communications, electronics, nonferrous metals and other industries led the increase, machinery, textile and clothing, media, computer and other industries also performed well, while consumer services, petroleum and petrochemical, coal, banking and other industries led the decline. Our gold stock portfolio rose by 8.10% in November. Since its establishment in February 2017, the cumulative portfolio return of China Thailand gold stock portfolio has been 244.1%, which is 200.9% compared with the excess return of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. In November, the gold stock portfolio with better performance includes Suzhou Recodeal Interconnect System Co.Ltd(688800) (+ 57.1%), Guangzhou Haoyang Electronic Co.Ltd(300833) (+ 26.5%) and Zhuzhou Hongda Electronics Corp.Ltd(300726) (+ 16.5%).
Variant viruses impact the global market and are temporarily treated as event driven. Omicron virus has brought strong interference to the global market recently. We suggest to refer to the views of epidemic prevention experts on virus development and existing prevention and control system, and we suggest to treat the market response according to the law of event driven. Over the past 20 years, judging from the extreme time point of the change of S & P volatility index, U.S. stocks generally reflect fully within a few trading days. The previous sharp rise of panic index is a good stage buying point. The main logic is that the core drive of U.S. stocks is still dominated by liquidity, and the short-term uncertainty mainly comes from the interference with profit expectation; For a shares, the index will generally follow the adjustment for 1-2 weeks, but the industry performance during this period is still dominated by differentiation; The worst situation was in March of 20 years, mainly due to the adjustment caused by liquidity risk, but the probability of recurrence is very low. From the event driven results of this year, only the liquidity problems at the end of February and the beginning of March have a great impact on the market. For the other times, if the index was adjusted in advance, then the index tends to reflect dull. If it was an upward pattern, then there will be adjustment pressure, but the adjustment range is limited. The most similar to the current period is the delta virus upgrade in mid July, The adjustment level may be 3-5%. In case of oversold, it may be a good buying point. For short-term response, it is recommended to control positions, see more and move less, and make balanced allocation until the market pattern is clear.
Gold stock portfolio in December:
From top to bottom, in combination with our monthly portfolio of various industries, the gold stocks recommended in Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) December 2021 are as follows: Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , B-Soft Co.Ltd(300451) , Wenzhou Yihua Connector Co.Ltd(002897) , Zhuzhou Hongda Electronics Corp.Ltd(300726) , Hangzhou Boiler Group Co.Ltd(002534) , chuang50etf.
Risk tips:
Monthly research opinions and key recommended targets are based on the judgment of each industry group on the fundamentals and profitability of the next month. Each industry has its economic and policy premise before making the final recommendation, and there may be economic and policy inconsistencies with our expectations.
