The average rise and fall of our top ten targets in November 2021 was 2.43%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 3.99%. In November, Goertek Inc(002241) (+ 19.61%) and China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) (+ 16.82%) were the main stocks with a large increase. The cumulative return of gold stocks from January to November this year was 28%.
A shares are about to usher in the last trading month of 2021. On the whole, we believe that the A-share market will be: 1) the outbreak of new variant covid-19 virus overseas; 2) Under the influence of factors such as the relatively high valuation of some sectors such as new energy and science and technology, there was a certain shock. On the other hand, the shock will not change the medium and long-term good trend supporting the market: 1) the third quarterly report of 2021 is the quarter with the largest downward range and pressure of A-share performance growth. After Q3, A-share performance growth is expected to gradually shock and bottom up; 2) the overall A share price earnings ratio is still near the 50 place in the past 10 years, and there is no valuation bubble. 3) In October, the growth rate of social finance turned positive year-on-year, maintaining the judgment that social finance bottomed out and rebounded; Therefore, the overall liquidity environment remained warm and improved. Specifically:
It still takes time to assess the medium – and long-term economic consequences of the new mutated virus, but the risk of global economic slowdown may increase. From this perspective, if the new mutated virus continues to prevail, it will significantly reduce the risk appetite of the global market and cause fluctuations in risky assets.
From the perspective of A-share valuation, excluding the industries whose P / E ratio has been passively improved due to the sharp decline in profits, the P / E ratio of beverage manufacturing, food processing, electrical automation equipment, power supply equipment and other industries is still above the 80th percentile in the past 10 years. On the premise of increasing market uncertainty, the volatility of these overvalued sectors may increase. On the other hand, the total A P / E ratio is still at 64 points in the past 10 years, and the net market share is 61. Therefore, there is no bubble in the whole A valuation.
In terms of macro liquidity, at the end of October, the scale of social finance stock was 309.45 trillion, Year on year growth of 10% (the same as last month); in October, social finance increased by 1.59 trillion yuan in a single month, an increase of 70 billion yuan over the same period of last year. Structurally, RMB credit and government bonds increased significantly year-on-year. We believe that credit is still expected to maintain a year-on-year increase from the end of the year to Q1 next year. Although the recovery rate of social finance and currency issuance is still slow, the recovery trend is relatively clear.
In terms of allocation, although the market fluctuation may increase at the end of the year, we believe that the main line of the market is still in the direction of prosperity and recovery. Focus on the three directions of “science and technology, double carbon and inflation recovery”. The industries are mainly military industry, medicine, electronics, new electricity and essential consumption.
The targets of concern in December 21 were: Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) (600298, buy), Zhejiang Xcc Group Co.Ltd;(603667) (603667, buy), Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (300750, Unrated), China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) (601888, overweight), Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) (601012, buy), Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (000858, buy), Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) (603799, buy), China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) (600036, Unrated), Goertek Inc(002241) (002241, buy)
Risk statement
The macro-economy fell more than expected
The capital market policy has changed significantly
The prediction of roe model is based on the assumption of month on month warping, and there is a risk of prediction deviation
