Market review: the index continued to fluctuate in a narrow range, with the mining sector leading the increase
Today, the two markets continued to fluctuate in a narrow range, and the performance of Shanghai stock market was relatively strong. As of the close, the Shanghai index rose 0.36% to 3576.89 and the Shenzhen index fell 0.01% to 14794.25. In terms of sectors, mining, light industry manufacturing and public utilities led the increase, while electrical equipment, national defense and military industry, medicine and biology led the decline. The turnover of the two cities was 1146.49 billion yuan, down 6.17% from the previous trading day and 1.45% from the average of the previous five days. The net purchase of Shanghai Stock connect was 3 billion yuan, the net purchase of Shenzhen Stock connect was 870000 yuan, and the net purchase of north capital was 3.001 billion yuan.
Market focus:
When Powell and US Treasury Secretary Yellen attended the two-day hearing of the Senate Banking Committee, they said it was time to give up the saying of “temporary inflation”. The pace of debt purchase reduction may be faster than the US $15 billion per month announced earlier this month. Policy makers will discuss the timetable for accelerating the reduction of debt purchase at the December meeting, The code reduction may be completed several months earlier than expected.
Strategy suggestion: it is recommended to pay attention to the military industry sector
Today, the two cities continued to fluctuate slightly and strengthened slightly in the late trading. Covid-19 detection, photovoltaic, aerospace equipment and other subjects led the decline, and coal mining, soda ash and other plates were well built. On November 30, the official quotation of monocrystalline silicon wafer was lowered on the official website of Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) mainly due to the overstock of inventory caused by the weak demand side. Boosted by the industrial policy of the 14th five year plan, the growth rate of photovoltaic installed capacity is still supported. At the same time, the silicon wafer duopoly led by Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) may be broken. The centralized release of production capacity of traditional manufacturers and new entrants will weaken the silicon wafer price and further transfer profits to the downstream. It is recommended to pay attention.
Powell’s statement on accelerating the reduction of the pace of debt purchase made a sharp correction in US stocks again. However, we believe that the basic logic of “the emergence of Omicron may once again impact the global supply chain and push up US inflation” may not be tenable. Since the beginning of this year, the main factors driving the sustained rise of inflation in the United States are as follows: first, the continuation and repetition of the epidemic has led to the withdrawal of some employed people from the labor market, labor shortage, and the average hourly wage has also continued to rise. The data show that the labor gap is still in place, and the unemployment rate has basically fallen back to the pre epidemic level. Second, the shortage of chips combined with comprehensive subsidies boosted the consumer demand for durable goods, and the prices of new and used cars rose sharply. Third, the soaring prices of oil, natural gas and electricity caused by the global energy crisis. Fourth, port congestion in the United States has significantly increased the cost of commodity imports. Therefore, unlike European countries, the “culprit” of U.S. inflation may not be the supply chain problem. If Omicron raises the epidemic peak again, the key impact may be the demand of the United States and China. After all, the United States no longer has the spare power to carry out a new round of unrestricted QE to support huge demand. The slowdown of recovery power will reduce the demand for energy and raw materials, And then alleviate the price rise caused by tight supply. At the same time, the accelerated pace of taper is what we expected before, and its impact on China’s asset prices is relatively limited. The focus should be on the specific expression of interest rate increase in the FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve on December 15. Regardless of the impact of Omicron, the epidemic situation in the United States has shown an obvious trend of counterattack in winter recently. Therefore, we expect that even if the non-agricultural data in November show a bright performance, the interest rate increase will not come too soon. The epidemic situation is still the biggest uncertainty factor, and we recommend continuous tracking. At the same time, the imbalance of the U.S. economic structure is more prominent, the economic recovery momentum in Europe is booming, the probability rate will remain loose in the short term, and the investment attraction of the Chinese market has continued to improve this year. Therefore, the liquidity of China’s capital market is expected to be strongly supported both in terms of monetary policy autonomy and foreign capital preference. We are optimistic about the high boom growth tracks such as new energy, digital infrastructure and energy storage under the policy support, as well as the military industry, non bank and other sectors with limited impact of the epidemic and high valuation attraction.
