summary
The economic recovery of most provinces slowed down, and the number of provinces with compound growth rate exceeding that before the epidemic decreased significantly
In terms of total GDP, the gap between Jiangsu and Guangdong has been further narrowed, and the changes in the total ranking are concentrated in the lower provinces. By the end of the third quarter of 2021, the GDP of 11 provinces such as Guangdong and Jiangsu had exceeded 3 trillion yuan, and the gap between Jiangsu and Guangdong had further narrowed. From the total GDP ranking of each region, compared with the same at the end of the first half of the year, the ranking of only four provinces has changed, with Tianjin surpassing Xinjiang and Heilongjiang surpassing Jilin. Although the ranking of total GDP in most regions has not changed, there are still some regional economies that deserve attention. Hubei’s total economic output will surpass Hunan by the end of 2020. At the same time, the gap with Fujian shows a trend of fluctuation and narrowing. A major concern during the year is whether Hubei can return to the top ten in the country again..
In terms of GDP growth, the two-year compound growth rate of most provinces was lower than that in the second quarter, and only four provinces exceeded the pre epidemic level. Under the influence of the low base factor, the year-on-year GDP growth rate of all provinces maintained a high growth rate in the first three quarters. However, compared with the first half of the year, with the weakening of the base effect, the year-on-year GDP growth rate of most provinces fell below 10%. From the perspective of two-year compound growth rate, the two-year compound growth rate of most provinces is weaker than that of the first half of the year. The two-year compound growth rate of southern provinces is better than that of northern provinces as a whole, and the gap between North and south is further widened. Under the low base, the two-year compound growth rate of the three northeastern provinces has rebounded significantly. In particular, the two-year compound growth rates of Jilin and Heilongjiang are 4.6% and 5.5% respectively, both exceeding the level in the same period in 2019, which is related to the relatively low base. It is worth mentioning that under the background of the impact of the epidemic in the third quarter, Jiangsu’s two-year compound growth rate (6.4%) was only 0.1 percentage points lower than that in the first half of the year, reflecting the resilience of Jiangsu’s economy. Driven by the free trade port, Hainan’s two-year compound growth rate (6.8%) ranked first in China. Under the impact of the epidemic and flood, Henan’s two-year compound growth rate (3.7%) was 0.1 percentage points lower than that in the first half of the year.
The gap in industrial growth among provinces is still large, and the industrial growth of each province continues to return to the normal level
Regional industrial production continued to recover, but it was not balanced, and the gap in industrial growth among provinces was still large. The gap of industrial growth among provinces is still large under the influence of multiple factors such as the impact of the epidemic, the difference of industrial structure, the strength of production restoration and the influence of policies. Among them, the overall economic resilience of the eastern provinces is strong, so the production rebound is greater than that.
Only half of the provinces’ industrial growth rate exceeded the pre epidemic level, and the margin of industrial growth rate in most provinces fell. From the two-year compound growth trend of each month, most provinces have shown a marginal slowdown in industrial growth since the second quarter, and this trend continues to the third quarter. About 2 / 3 of the 31 provinces (cities and districts) have experienced marginal year-on-year industrial growth slowdown. Subsequently, with the overall economy returning to the normal level and the impact of the dual control policy on energy consumption, the industrial growth of regions and provinces may show a certain downward trend.
Provincial investment continues to repair, but the intensity is differentiated. The repair intensity of provinces with large economic volume is still weak
The investment in repair among provinces is still unbalanced, and the two-year compound growth rate of investment in most provinces is still lower than that before the epidemic. After excluding the base effect, five of the 31 provinces have achieved double-digit compound growth rate in two years, and the investment growth rate of four provinces is negative. There is a difference of nearly 30 percentage points between Xinjiang with the highest growth rate and Tibet with the lowest growth rate. In the first three quarters, 18 of the 31 provinces had a two-year compound growth rate lower than that before the epidemic. Among them, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Henan, Fujian, Sichuan, Anhui and Hebei provinces with large economic volume have relatively weak investment and repair efforts. In the follow-up, the tightening of real estate regulation policies and the limited growth of local land revenue will drag down the growth of real estate and infrastructure investment, but the completion of the issuance of special bonds may support the growth of infrastructure to a certain extent. In the short term, the PPI probability will still operate at a high level, which will hinder manufacturing investment, and the uncertainty of further repair of investment is still large.
Consumption in the areas where the epidemic is spreading has been significantly impacted, and consumption in the South has remained strong
Consumption in southern China has been consolidated, and attention has been paid to the problem of low consumption in areas where the epidemic is spreading. In the first three quarters, among the top ten provinces with compound growth rate in the two years, only Shandong is the northern province, including 4 eastern provinces and 3 central and western provinces. Specifically, the two-year compound growth rate of social zero in Hainan, Jiangxi and Anhui in the first three quarters was still in the top three. However, with the support of the free trade port, Hainan surpassed Jiangxi and Anhui in the third quarter, ranking first in the country, as high as 11.8%. In addition, the two-year compound growth rate was still much higher than 4.6% in the same period before the epidemic. It is worth mentioning that the two-year compound growth rate of social zero in Jiangsu was 6.7%, ranking the seventh in China, the same as that in the same period before the epidemic; Despite the impact of the epidemic, the zero amount of social security in Jiangsu once decreased by 2.9% year-on-year in August, due to strong consumption toughness, the repair of consumption accelerated in September. The two-year compound growth rate was significantly weaker than that before the epidemic in Hubei, Henan, Yunnan and Fujian. Hubei was seriously impacted by the epidemic last year, while Henan, Yunnan and Fujian all faced greater epidemic pressure in the third quarter, and Henan suffered the double impact of the epidemic and flood. From the perspective of total consumption, the ranking of provinces is roughly the same as that of total GDP. Among them, the rising provinces are mainly southern provinces. Anhui Province and Chongqing perform well, both of which have increased by 3 places compared with the GDP ranking.
Under the high base, the export growth of the central region slows down, and the import differentiation is closely related to the local economic structure
Under the high base, the export growth of the central region slowed down, and the two-year compound growth rate of exports from the East, the West and the Northeast accelerated. In the first three quarters, the exports of the eastern, central, Western and northeast regions increased year-on-year compared with the same period last year, but the rise was differentiated. The previous high-speed growth momentum in the central region slowed down, and the year-on-year growth rate and two-year compound growth rate fell. The year-on-year growth in the eastern and western regions slowed down under the background of a higher base, but the compound growth rate in the two years accelerated. The base of Northeast China is relatively low, and the year-on-year growth rate and two-year compound growth rate have increased. At the same time, the export toughness of southern provinces is better than that of northern provinces as a whole. From the perspective of specific provinces, all provinces maintained positive growth compared with the same period last year. Under the background of high export growth in the third quarter, only four provinces failed to achieve positive growth in two-year compound growth, and the number decreased by one compared with the first half of the year, namely Tibet, Qinghai, Gansu and Ningxia, which have a relatively small export base. Guangdong’s exports exceeded 550 billion US dollars in the first three quarters. Against the background of huge export volume, the month on month growth rate of exports in the third quarter ranked the sixth in China, up to 17.34%, further widening the gap between Datong Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Henan’s export growth dropped significantly, mainly due to the decline of industrial production in the third quarter under the dual impact of the epidemic and flood, and the significant year-on-year growth of export delivery value, which failed to effectively support exports.
The import trend of each province is differentiated, and its import trend is closely related to the local economic structure. In terms of year-on-year growth, the overall import of southern provinces was better than that of northern provinces in the first three quarters. Xinjiang’s imports still failed to achieve positive growth. In terms of two-year compound growth rate, Xinjiang, Ningxia and Qinghai failed to achieve positive growth. The import volume of Guangdong province continues to maintain a stable growth trend, and the total import volume ranks first in China. High crude oil prices have driven the rapid growth of Beijing’s imports. Benefiting from the advantages of free trade port, Hainan’s imports of consumer goods and metal minerals increased significantly. Iron ore prices fell in the third quarter, and the two-year compound growth rate of imports of Hebei Province, the pillar industry of which is the iron and steel industry, fell somewhat. Due to the tightening of the supply chain, the overall import growth rate of the central region dominated by electromechanical and high Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) processing trade has dropped.
