Key investment points:
In 2021, the market showed a pattern of repeated shocks after inertial rise. At the beginning of the year, the performance was slightly stronger, then there was a correction and fluctuated in the range around 3400-3700 points. The performance of the whole year was relatively tortuous. As of November 30, the Shanghai index rose 2.61%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 7.28%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.25% and the gem rose 17.85%.
Analysis of market environment in the first half of 2022:
Economy: in 2022, the global loose policy is facing a gradual decline, and the economic recovery is slowing down. China’s inflation is controllable and its fiscal policy is still positive. Under the expectation of China’s economic growth falling and stable growth, there are periodic fine adjustments in monetary policy. It is not ruled out that the central bank may reduce the reserve requirement in the first quarter of 2022. It is expected that the annual GDP growth rate in 2022 will be about 5.6%, showing a pattern of “low before stable”.
Capital market: in the first half of 2022, we will continue to anchor high-quality development, further promote the institutional opening-up of the capital market, strengthen the reform of the new third board, steadily promote the whole market registration system, and increase support for carbon emission reduction. In the future, the long and short mechanism of the market will be smoother, which will help to further attract foreign capital inflows. Common prosperity promotes the diversified development of capital market allocation, and the continuous decline of interest rate improves the preference for equity asset allocation.
In terms of capital: the increase of repurchase and the continuous entry of institutional funds into the market are still the main support points. In addition to funds and insurance funds, there is also the demand for the allocation of bank financial funds. The northward capital is still expected to maintain a large inflow pattern, and there is also the leveraged capital support of the two financial markets. It is expected that the capital level will show a slight net inflow trend in 2022, which is slightly improved compared with that in 2021.
Market outlook for the first half of 2022: consolidate the capital, cultivate the yuan and move forward steadily. For the market in the first half of 2022, we are generally partial to positive bliss. The economy is low before operation and stable after operation, and the policy support for the economy is expected to increase moderately in the first half of the year. There is a phased easing of monetary policy, and the possibility of an appropriate RRR reduction at the beginning of the year is not ruled out; The high-quality development of the capital market will be further deepened, and the demand for wealth allocation will continue to increase. In particular, the market entry of incremental funds is expected to increase compared with 2021, which constitutes support for the market. The overall market has maintained resilience in this year’s shock consolidation, and the market vitality has not decreased. With the sustained and healthy development of the capital market, the market is expected to change the sideways pattern and move forward steadily, driven by factors such as the marginal improvement of liquidity at the beginning of 2022, policy fine-tuning, the policy expectation of the two sessions and the demand for incremental capital allocation brought by common prosperity, Usher in the rising trend of shock.
The spring Market in 2022 is still worth looking forward to. It is expected that the market trend in the first quarter is relatively good. In the second quarter, with the clear policies of the two sessions and the rising inflation, it may face high shock consolidation.
Operation strategy and investment main line: the market opportunities will still be dominated by structure and band. It is suggested to optimize the industry and midline layout in combination with various factors such as industrial policy, industry prosperity and institutional layout, focusing on the following
Investment main line:
(1) The main line of consumption recovery: such as food and beverage, household appliances, leisure services, medicine, etc;
(2) Carbon neutralization: focus on new energy, new energy vehicles, electrical equipment, environmental protection, etc. under the background of “double carbon”;
(3) The main line of scientific and technological innovation: such as computer, electronics, communication, new materials, military industry and other sectors.
(4) Underestimate the main line of high-quality blue chip: such as finance, building materials, machinery, etc.
Industry configuration: over allocation of finance, food and beverage, household appliances, electrical equipment, building materials, TMT, etc., standard allocation of new energy vehicles, chemical industry, nonferrous metals, medicine, machinery, new materials, military industry, environmental protection, etc.
Risk tips: the overseas epidemic has intensified, the economic trend is less than expected, and the Sino US trade relations have deteriorated.
